"The Russians are not advancing in Ukraine, fortunately. But Putin must win this war if he wants to stay in power. He cannot just say: "We are going home". He knows that he will be overthrown immediately," says a German expert.
The unusual visit of CIA Director John Ratcliffe to Moscow continues to cause discussion. German military expert Sönke Neitzel told ARD that the reason may have been a warning from the US not to try to attack the Baltic states. According to him, the Kremlin can also make such plans from a position of weakness, which it currently seems to be in on the front in Ukraine.
"Putin cannot simply stop the war"
"The Russians are not making progress at the moment, fortunately. But Putin must win this war if he wants to stay in power. He cannot simply say: "We are going home". He knows that if he does, he will be immediately overthrown. He cannot simply switch to peace. All the economists I have talked to believe that it is impossible - the Russian economy will collapse", says Naitzel. "Putin needs this war - both from an economic and domestic political point of view". According to the expert, if Moscow fails to report some progress in Ukraine, he may resort to an attack on NATO, which is currently worrying the Alliance. "This would be a move like a wounded animal trying to achieve some success. We have seen it many times in the history of dictators”.
Such a move seems irrational to many, but Naitzel notes that the decision for a full-scale invasion in 2022 was not particularly rational either. The main point of view in NATO is now that Russia could launch such an attack from a position of weakness”, says the expert. The fact that NATO is currently not in a very good situation is also a big problem, especially considering that the US used a lot of its ammunition in the war in Iran, which is still ongoing. The "Patriot” air defense missiles are in short supply, and Europe cannot yet produce them on its own. This leaves the Old Continent vulnerable to Russia's long-range missiles. Europe is also lagging behind in drone warfare, and Moscow is aware of this, the expert notes. "This is exactly NATO's fear - that Putin could take advantage of this opportunity".
What exactly does hybrid warfare mean?
According to Naitzel, it is very difficult to make an adequate assessment of whether Russia is stepping up its attempts at provocations against NATO countries, since only the intelligence services have this information. However, he gives as an example the disturbing revelations surrounding the appearance of drones with explosives at Leipzig airport. He tells ARD that he knows of other cases that have not become public. That is why the expert says: "When I talk to people from the intelligence services, I advise them to explain more. If people always say to the public that we are in a hybrid war, ordinary people do not understand what exactly this means. We need to be clearer,” says Naitzel.
The expert pleads for serious attention to be paid to what happened at Leipzig airport. According to Naitzel, the drone attack there failed only for technical reasons. "Imagine if one or two cargo planes carrying ammunition had crashed after contact with a drone over the city of Halle and 100 people had died. Then the question would definitely be - should we not recall Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty - the mutual defense clause? How long is the situation hybrid? When does it become military? When is it time to declare that we are at war or at least in a crisis situation?", asks the expert. According to him, such a decision cannot be made in Germany, since a 2/3 majority in the Bundestag is required, and "Alternative for Germany" and the Left would never vote "yes".
Neitzel says that cynically, these incidents can even be seen as something positive. "Why? Because they clearly outline the threat that the services are constantly telling us, the citizens,". Now the government is under pressure to do something. Because if nothing happens again, and the next time a plane actually crashes, what will the government, who are now only talking, do then, the expert asks rhetorically.
"The last peaceful summer in Europe"
ARD recalls that last year, Naitzel sparked serious public discussion with his warning that 2025 could be "the last peaceful summer" in Europe. The expert admits that this prediction has not proven true, and hopes that there will be no war in the future. "Despite the drone incidents, I am more optimistic now than I was last March, when I made this statement", says Naitzel, noting that it was made shortly after Donald Trump took office and the scandal with Ukrainian President Zelensky in the White House.
At that time, NATO was faced with the question of whether Trump would try to destroy the Alliance, but it still exists and the organization's last summit in Ankara was encouraging, explains Naitzel. "However, we must bear in mind that Putin could escalate the situation even further. "The Russians can certainly attack our airports with drones. But for now they are not doing it. Yes, Putin is escalating provocations, waging a hybrid war. But in my opinion, for now he is still trying not to cross a certain line," the expert told ARD.