Over the summer, the Russian currency depreciated by as much as 20%. Why is the ruble losing value and what are the forecasts?
Over the summer, the Russian ruble depreciated significantly. At the beginning of June, the dollar was worth about 71.5 rubles, and the euro - just over 86. By the end of August, the exchange rate of the American currency, which is determined by the Central Bank, reached 86 rubles, and that of the European one - 100. What are the reasons for this depreciation?
The fall of the ruble
August is traditionally considered an unfavorable month for the Russian currency. For the period from 1998 to 2026, the ruble has fallen 20 times, RBC calculates based on data from the Moscow Exchange. The most significant decline was in 1998, when, as a result of devaluation, the ruble depreciated against the dollar by more than 58%.
In August 2026, the US dollar appreciated by almost 8.9% - not so dramatic, but this is the second worst result for the ruble over the entire period. Moreover, it has been depreciating in previous months: throughout the summer, the dollar rate rose by about 20%. At current levels - over 86 rubles per dollar and over 100 rubles per euro - the Russian currency was last at the beginning of 2025.
When buying currency in cash or making international transfers, dollars and euros are even more expensive for Russians. When buying currency in cash in Moscow and St. Petersburg, the markup compared to the quotes on Forex, the international over-the-counter market, in most cases amounts to about two rubles. This is confirmed by the data of the sites "Sravni.ru" and "Banki.ru", which reflect the current rates of various exchange offices.
Non-cash currency for transfer to a foreign account is significantly more expensive. For example, the Russian branch of the Hungarian OTP Bank - one of the few banks that still carries out SWIFT transfers to the EU, on August 31 offered the euro for 103.4 rubles for a transfer of 2 million rubles. For a transfer of 500 thousand, the rate was even less favorable - 103.6 rubles per euro. The official Central Bank rate for that day was 99.68 rubles. In addition, a commission of 2-3% must be paid for the transfer itself.
Why is the ruble losing value?
There are several reasons for the depreciation of the Russian currency. All of them are a fact of life and, according to analysts, will continue to influence the market in the future. Analyst Anastasia Stepantsova points out three factors that put pressure on the ruble. All of them are directly or indirectly related to Russia's war against Ukraine.
The first factor is the reduction in export deliveries through the Black Sea. The threat of Ukrainian drone attacks has significantly hampered the work of the port of Novorossiysk, which limits the inflow of foreign exchange proceeds from the sale of oil and agricultural products. The second factor is the seasonal increase in demand for foreign exchange from importers. This year, it is being exacerbated by the fuel crisis, which was also provoked by drone attacks: the failure of the largest oil refineries is forcing Russia to buy from abroad, including oil products. And thirdly: investors may accumulate currency as a defensive asset, fearing a further escalation of hostilities, Stepantsova points out.
Economist Alexander Isakov, in turn, recalls that in the first half of the year the ruble strengthened thanks to the rise in oil prices caused by the US-Iran conflict. The country enjoyed large foreign exchange earnings. In addition, the Ministry of Finance temporarily suspended foreign exchange purchases for the National Welfare Fund. However, subsequently the price of oil fell, and the Ministry of Finance resumed foreign exchange purchases. Another factor supporting the ruble was the high key interest rate, but now the Central Bank is slowly lowering it.
What are the prospects?
The correction of world oil prices (peace in the Middle East is not in sight, but the market has already adapted) and the reduction in Russian export volumes will continue to put pressure on the ruble, analysts believe. In addition, the ongoing drone attacks on Russian oil refineries create risks.
The current exchange rate - about 86 rubles per dollar - according to experts, looks balanced at the moment. But by the end of the year the Russian currency may depreciate a little more - to 87-88 rubles.