I do not expect anything good for Bulgaria from Russia in the next 20-30 years, Velizar Shalamanov tells DV. "The world is changing, but we are an actor in these changes and we cannot wait for others to decide for us."
How do you think Putin's military aggression in Ukraine will end?
Velizar Shalamanov: With the consolidation of Europe in the EU and NATO, the acceptance of Ukraine and Moldova and Russia becoming highly dependent on China. With a stronger Europe in NATO and a new level of relations between Europe (and Canada) and the US, a new level of NATO's partnership with Japan, Australia, the Republic of Korea, New Zealand.
And what do you say to the pro-Russian "peace lovers" in Bulgaria? To those for whom "peace" means the attacked country surrendering and giving up a large part of its eastern lands? And why should we all be afraid of "nuclear Putin" - as if there is no tacit system of mutual restraint?
Velizar Shalamanov: They are betting on a wrong theory of international relations, they do not understand NATO, nor the EU, nor the US. They overestimate Russia and underestimate Ukraine. There will be peace in Europe when the system for deterring Russian aggression is restored through the consolidation of Europe in NATO and Ukraine is free to choose its future. This will probably exhaust Russia and it will fall under a stronger dependence on China.
The consolidation of Europe and relations with the US in NATO on the one hand, and the so-called Plan 2049 of China on the other, will probably protect us from a nuclear scenario from Russia, but we must be very careful. It is important to reach an agreement in our country for "Bulgaria 2050" based on a reliable theory. In 2049 is the 100th anniversary of NATO and the PRC, which will be the two poles of a – hopefully – more stable world, but that also depends on us.
How does the Russian aggressor hold out, given that the "collective West" is headed by a leader like Trump? The 123rd Ukrainian tank brigade will not solve the issue. Neither does the influential T. R. Fehrenbach, a military expert from the mid-20th century, according to whom you can bomb like crazy with aviation (in this case - with drones), but until you enter the field with infantry, it won't work.
Velizar Shalamanov: The Russian aggressor is activated because it has a doctrine with stages and went through destabilization and crisis in Ukraine to try "submission" through a quick military operation. This operation turned into a war of attrition, but as the Austrian colonel and military historian Markus Reisner says, Russia continues to try demoralization and destabilization, causing a crisis in the EU, in NATO countries (including Bulgaria), with the aim of new waves of aggression. The question is how quickly Putin will exhaust himself so that he will not have the resources to continue this scenario. Here, support for Ukraine is critically important for us - in protecting Europe from Russian aggression. Ultimately, returning the captured 20% of Ukraine's territory will be a long process, but the most important thing is to stop future aggression by Russia, to protect Ukraine as a future part of the EU, and to restore it, including territorially through negotiations, which Russia will need for its own restoration. The most comprehensive is information warfare, and it is not reduced to infantry on the ground, but to domination in the information space, in the minds and hearts of people through convincing narratives. Weapons are used not only for physical destruction, but also for influence in the information space, to instill fear and break the will to resist. So far, Ukraine is coping with this challenge excellently, and we can learn from it if we want to stop Russian aggression in Europe.
What are the real dangers for us? Iran? And what about Trump and Netanyahu?
Velizar Shalamanov: The main danger for us is the division of society and Moscow's aggressive information war against Bulgarians and Bulgaria (as we pointed out during the caretaker government in 2014 in "Vision 2020"). Iran is a threat to Israel and the region, and its support from Russia and China makes the issue much more serious than just a regional threat. The US President's commitment to supporting Israel and the general issue of preventing a nuclear Iran with multiple long-range ballistic missiles and a network of proxy terrorist organizations is important, but it requires consultations in the free world and a common solution in agreement with the countries in the region. This conflict is a risk for Bulgaria, but it is not the main one.
In principle, I do not comment on leaders of NATO allies, although I no longer hold a position in the Alliance - I simply believe that this is good for NATO, and from there good for Bulgaria. Israel, although outside NATO, is a friendly democratic country and the Israelis have the say – i.e. neither the US nor Israel are a threat to Bulgaria.
Are we currently witnessing a huge technological revolution in combat operations, namely - drone warfare, plus ground-based unmanned vehicles, etc.?
Velizar Shalamanov: The larger technological revolution is in the field of artificial intelligence and autonomous systems in general - in particular the manifestation of these two technologies in drone warfare, but much more serious changes are ahead. This means that we need to rethink doctrines, programs for the development of the armed forces and their equipment, and in our case - high interoperability and multinational forces/projects with allies. We are lagging behind drastically in all these areas, and this in itself is a threat comparable to Russian aggression in Europe.
Ukraine is already hitting targets 3,000 km deep into Russian territory. How much does this affect the outcome of this war? Is it possible that it will turn into "the syndrome of endless battle", according to Sun Tzu? And even more importantly - is it possible that this will be a "dirty" war, in which there is poison gas, the latest flamethrowers, submarines in the Black Sea, etc., which we do not know about, atrocities that no one suspects?
Velizar Shalamanov: Surely this war is already a war of attrition. We missed the moment to help Ukraine more decisively (as the USA and the West helped the USSR at the beginning of the Nazi aggression) and now it will be more difficult, with more risks of new threats that we can hardly foresee. Moscow is definitely focusing on terrorizing the civilian population - dams, fires, residential buildings, schools, theaters, markets, energy and water supply infrastructure. Ukraine is holding back and hitting only the oil industry to cut off the flow of money to the war, but if a ceasefire is not reached, the escalation may be difficult to manage.
Why is there not enough talk about the enormous Western aid to the USSR and the American "Lend-Lease" during World War II, without which they probably would not have won on the Eastern Front only with heroism and selflessness at Stalingrad and especially Kursk, when they turned the tide of the war?
Velizar Shalamanov: There is talk, but perhaps not enough, and even now the aid needed for Ukraine is much different - quantity, but also a new quality, as well as a constant risk of the Russian escalation getting out of control. Since Russia is largely imposing a war of attrition and division on Europe, we must be innovative in order to avoid direct confrontation, but also not to abandon Ukraine.
Can you very coolly outline the moment we are in regarding the war in Ukraine? "Where is Bulgaria", so to speak?
Velizar Shalamanov: We are in a period of a war of attrition, as I mentioned, with a continued escalation by Moscow of terrorist attacks against civilians and infrastructure. Support from the free world is increasing, as are sanctions to deter Russia. But Bulgaria seems to be gradually distancing itself from the EU and NATO, and it seems as if the impression is created that it is defending Moscow's interests, which at some point could lead to serious damage to the country and direct threats to our sovereignty and territorial integrity.
And regarding the US-Iran conflict?
Velizar Shalamanov: This is primarily a conflict between Iran and Israel, and also other countries in the region, in which the US has committed itself to protecting its interests and an ally like Israel. This conflict negatively affects Europe and sooner or later we will have to make difficult decisions, but it is difficult for me to comment further because I do not know the region.
What foreign policy should we pursue in this complex international situation?
Velizar Shalamanov: A foreign policy based on national consent, active participation in decision-making in the EU and NATO in a strategic partnership with the US, support for Ukraine within the EU and NATO. Plus strengthening our resilience against Russian and other malign enemy influences. The world is moving towards regrouping around NATO and China, we are in NATO and NATO's success is key to our success.
And what kind of Russia will come after Putin?
Velizar Shalamanov: I was a cadet at the time when Brezhnev, Andropov, Chernenko died, then Gorbachev came, the Warsaw Pact dissolved, the USSR collapsed. Then Yeltsin took over Russia, and then he handed over power to Putin. A turbulent period. Whether a similar scenario will develop is difficult for me to judge. One of the options is that he will be succeeded by an even more brutal leader from the special services, but there may also be a period of weakening of the central government, a possible collapse. The US and Europe are unlikely to come to the rescue of Russia as in the 80s and 90s of the last century. In my opinion, the most important thing is what China's plan for Russia is. I do not expect anything good for Bulgaria from Russia in the next 20-30 years, so it is important for us to deter hybrid and possible conventional aggression, as well as to strengthen our capabilities plus the power of the EU and NATO. The Russians will find a solution for their country, but they can hardly restore the empire or the USSR - it is more likely that they will be "taken over" by another power, after the exhaustion in the war against Ukraine. After all, the previous collapse was after the war in Afghanistan, which was far more sparing for the USSR. Gen. Gromov became commander of the Kiev Military District after the war, during my doctoral studies in Kiev - so I know very well the crisis with the "Afghans" in the USSR.
In any case, the time has come for "Vision 2050" for Bulgaria in NATO and the EU, because the world is changing, but we are an actor in these changes and we cannot wait for others to decide for us. And even after 150 years of the Third Bulgarian State, we must continue without the constant attempt at control by Russia - i.e. to be free and equal with other European nations.