Trump wants to declare victory, Iran insists on control of the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf states are trying to find their place between the hammer and the anvil - is the knot in the Middle East untied?
Almost seven months after the start of the war in Iran, the conflict has expanded to encompass two strategically important sea corridors. In addition to the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20 percent of the world's crude oil and liquefied natural gas are transported, a second key energy trade route, the Red Sea, is also under pressure.
The Iranian-backed Houthis have expanded their attacks on Saudi Arabia, increasingly targeting energy infrastructure as well as export routes through the Red Sea.
According to information from the "New York Times", Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman called US President Donald Trump on Sunday to again ask him to urgently intervene and stop the group's rapid advance. "Fox News" reported that according to Trump, the Houthis have promised not to attack American targets.
Military pressure does not lead to a political solution
Amid rising gasoline and diesel prices, as well as the domestic political situation before the midterm elections on November 3, Donald Trump is trying to achieve his stated goals in the war with Iran.
"President Trump wants to end the war with Iran from a position that allows him to claim that Iran's nuclear and military capabilities have been significantly weakened, freedom of navigation has been restored, and Tehran has been forced to return to the negotiating table," Middle East expert Fatemeh Aman told DW. However, Aman does not see a coherent strategy for achieving this goal.
There is still a gap between military pressure and a political solution. The United States has imposed significant military and economic burdens on Iran and appears to have made progress in weakening the country's military capabilities. However, so far, it has failed to achieve either Tehran's surrender or a lasting agreement.
This Wednesday, Trump is scheduled to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Washington. China is the largest buyer of Iranian oil and a key political partner of Tehran. At that meeting, Trump is likely to raise the issue of China's economic and financial ties with Iran in the hope that Beijing will use its influence over Tehran - especially on the security of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
No breakthrough between Iran and its neighbors
So far, there is no common position emerging between Iran and its Gulf Arab neighbors. A planned meeting between Iran, the Gulf states and Iraq was canceled last week. The cancellation may be related to the recent attacks by the Houthis on Saudi Arabia.
"At first glance, there seems to be little in common between Iran and the Gulf states," Farzan Sabet, a Middle East expert at the Graduate Institute for International Studies and Development in Geneva, told DW. "Yet behind the scenes, there is at least one common interest - preventing further military escalation," he added.
The Gulf states realize that they would hardly be able to win a direct military confrontation with Iran. Therefore, they generally support de-escalation in relations with Tehran. However, no agreement is currently in sight. For the Gulf states, Iran's demands for greater control over the Strait of Hormuz go too far.
The situation is further complicated by the war in Yemen, which limits the possibilities for rapprochement. For example, Saudi Arabia is unlikely to show any inclination to make concessions while it continues to be attacked by the Houthis, who are allies of the regime in Tehran.
The United States, Iran and the Gulf States pursue different goals
A permanently hostile coalition in the Gulf, supported by the United States, would be strategically disadvantageous for Tehran, said Fatemeh Aman. Therefore, she believes that Iran can implement a dual strategy - to oppose the Washington-led architecture of containment while offering the Gulf states an alternative model for regional security based on reconciliation and dialogue. After all, the Gulf states are not only Iran's rivals but also its neighbors - a geographical reality that neither country can change.
According to Iranian security representative Mohsen Rezaei, Tehran is demanding that the US cease hostilities on all fronts. Iran is also calling for the release of frozen Iranian assets and the lifting of the maritime blockade. Negotiations with Qatar and Oman are reportedly continuing. Tehran is currently awaiting a response from US President Donald Trump. It remains unclear whether these diplomatic channels can lead to an end to the war. Because Washington, Tehran and the Gulf states continue to pursue different goals.