The full-scale war in Ukraine has been going on for five years, and its outcome increasingly depends on the resilience of Russia, the Ukrainian resistance and the willingness of Western countries to continue their support. This is the conclusion of an analysis by Forbes, which poses three interrelated questions with consequences far beyond the borders of Ukraine.
When Vladimir Putin begins the invasion on February 24, 2022, Moscow expects Ukraine to fall within three days. Some Russian servicemen are even wearing parade uniforms for the supposed celebration after the capture of the country. More than four years later, Kiev remains the capital of an independent state, while Russia continues to fight for limited territorial gains.
A war of attrition and dependence on allies
According to Forbes, Ukraine has held out thanks to its military and political leadership, the resistance of the army and citizens, innovations on the battlefield and the support of allies. However, the publication warns that resilience is not unlimited.
At the NATO summit in July, European allies and Canada said they were funding the "overwhelming majority" of security assistance to Ukraine. They pledged 70 billion euros in military equipment, assistance and training through 2026.
Meanwhile, Kiev has been under almost daily attacks since August, Forbes writes. Long-range missiles and drones have caused thousands of casualties, including in urban centers far from the front line. It is the pressure on the Ukrainian army, the population, and the country’s partners that shapes the first question: whose resilience will be exhausted first.
International Law Under Pressure
The second question is whether international law will continue to deter territorial gains. After 1945, the international order was created with the idea that strong states could not seize land from weaker neighbors with impunity. International humanitarian law requires a distinction between military targets and civilian objects, compliance with the principle of proportionality, and measures to limit harm to the population.
The UN reported that Russian armed forces systematically and repeatedly attacked Ukraine's energy infrastructure in the winter of 2025-2026. The strikes disrupted electricity, heating, and other vital services for millions of people.
The refugee crisis and the cost of the war
The third question is what will happen if millions more Ukrainians decide that they have no future in their homeland. Almost 6 million Ukrainians remain refugees abroad, and nearly 4 million are internally displaced. In the worst-case scenario, up to 20 million people could seek refuge in the West, according to a study by the Brussels-based think tank Friends of Europe in 2024. Forbes emphasizes that this estimate should be approached cautiously, but not dismissively.
The war will come at a high cost regardless of its outcome. The World Bank, the European Commission, the UN and the Ukrainian government estimate the recovery and reconstruction needs at nearly $588 billion over the next decade. The amount is based on damage reported through the end of 2025.
According to Forbes, a possible Russian victory would not eliminate these costs, but could increase them through a new wave of refugees, higher European defense spending, a more militarized NATO border, and additional American resources to deter Russia.
“The answers to these questions will not be limited to Ukraine's borders“, the publication concludes. They will determine Europe's security, migration, and political stability, as well as the strategic burden on the United States for years to come.
Sources: UNIAN, Forbes