Unfortunately, the debate in Bulgaria about our security and membership in the EU and NATO avoids answers to several critical questions - questions that have long been openly discussed in other countries of the Alliance.
The first question that the presidential candidates must answer is whether they are ready to fulfill Bulgaria's commitments under Article 5 of NATO and to plead before the National Assembly for their implementation if Russia attacks another member state of the Alliance. Whether they will comply with the assessment of the threat shared by NATO and the EU.
The answer is not easy at all. At least for me, Rumen Radev will not only not insist on fulfilling these commitments, but he would probably adopt a position of neutrality - with the argument that this will "keep Bulgaria out of war". Which, you must agree, is a super populist position that could end with another national catastrophe.
Such a position would call into question our very membership in NATO.
Because the question is simple: how will you react if another member of the Alliance is attacked, that is how the allies will react when you are attacked.
Here we get to the heart of the problem.
In the political positions of Radev, Yotova, Kostadinov and other representatives of this type of thinking, Russia is not seen as a direct threat to Bulgaria. And when the threat is not recognized, the need for defense preparation logically disappears.
And so gradually every warning turns into an exaggeration, every incident into an accident, and every need for a reaction into a provocation.
There are assassination attempts with and without Novichok - they were not proven. There are explosions - the owners themselves were to blame. There are systematic threats - they were just rhetoric.
And what if it comes to a real attack? Because the only constant feature of Russian policy is that there are no limits to aggressiveness.
What do we do then?
As I said in “The Alternative“, the backup option to inaction under Article 5 and de facto self-exclusion from NATO would be a visit by Yotova and Radev to Moscow, kneeling and swearing an oath of loyalty.
But Moscow, before which some would be ready to kneel, will not accept this as a gift. It will demand a ransom, to pay a peace tax, as the mutts did. That's what the Kremlin did right after the Liberation - we always paid each other.
A racket given, a racket accepted.
The second question is even more difficult
In the context of the constant nuclear threats from Russian politicians and propaganda spokesmen, a feeling is created in our country that a nuclear war is something that could start at any moment.
We should not panic.
The West has been living under the shadow of the threat of Russian nuclear strikes for more than seven decades. And during this time, Western societies have not stopped developing, creating wealth, and raising their standard of living.
You see, being a nuclear power does not help Russia in a conventional war with Ukraine.
This leads to another, much more serious question, which almost no one in power talks about:
How will we defend ourselves?
And even more specifically:
Do we want Bulgaria to be part of the European nuclear umbrella? Are we ready to accept nuclear weapons on our territory if this becomes part of the deterrence strategy of NATO and Europe?
These are the real security issues. Not the slogans. I am not saying that we should or should not, mainly because I am aware that it requires a very precise assessment of risks and opportunities.
Our big problem is that we live in a kind of half-sleep and refuse to realize that the world has changed.
And when the world changes, countries have to make choices.
Increasingly difficult. Increasingly expensive. And increasingly existential.
Downsizing is no longer an option.
Yes, we can choose to be absent from the European debate, but at our own expense.