A remote territory could prove crucial for NATO. Svalbard, a Norwegian archipelago with a special status, has long been worried mostly about polar bears. Now there is another, much more serious problem - Russia. More and more experts fear that it is in Svalbard that Moscow may try to challenge NATO, writes "Politico”. The allies suspect that Russia is exploring key undersea cables in the waters off Svalbard and plans to test the limits of the rules governing its presence there. As Moscow steps up its hybrid attacks across Europe, Oslo is looking to bolster its naval forces and surveillance capabilities to protect its northern flank, and local authorities in Svalbard are investing in critical infrastructure and even have an evacuation plan in place.
Despite being Norwegian territory, the archipelago’s main island, Spitsbergen, is also home to a Russian city. For decades, Moscow and Oslo have largely managed to prevent escalation, but that delicate balance is now under increasing strain. “The Russian authorities are extremely unpredictable and increasingly willing to take risky actions,” Kari Aga Micklebost of the Arctic University of Norway told Politico. The history professor says she would not rule out a potential Russian attack on NATO.
Barentsburg and Russian interests in the region
In a 1920 international treaty, countries recognized Norway's sovereignty over the islands and in return received rights to exploit the natural resources, with the Soviet Union soon after buying the town of Barentsburg to exploit the local coal deposits. The treaty also prohibited any country from using Svalbard for "military purposes," including building naval bases and fortifications, but Norway still visits the archipelago with warships and coast guard vessels.
Moscow has little incentive to violate the treaty - doing so could backfire on its own interests. The northwestern Russian Kola Peninsula, home to two-thirds of Russia’s nuclear-capable submarines, is about 1,000 kilometers away, so “Russia is being cautious to avoid any kind of escalation,” Miklebost told the publication.
Since 2022, local Russian authorities have come under fire for hosting a youth organization indirectly linked to the navy, announcing missile exercises in the area, and organizing annual parades that once included a helicopter flyover, Politico reports. Moscow also introduced direct ship travel from Russia in 2024, and last year established a branch of the Russian Geographical Society, which is headed by former Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.