Milorad Dodik's party - the Union of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) - has declared victory in the general elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Preliminary results show the party leading in Republika Srpska, with its candidate Savo Minič winning the race for president of the Serbian autonomous entity, and Željka Cvijanović getting the Serbian seat in the country's three-member presidency.
“I declare the SNSD a victory. I congratulate Željka Cvijanović and Savo Minič“, Dodik said after the vote. He also said that his party is winning at all levels of government. This statement refers to preliminary, not finally confirmed results.
Victory with different dimensions
With nearly 90% of ballots counted, Cvijanović has over 55% of the votes for Serbian representative in the Presidency and leads by about 30 percentage points over his main rival. Thus, the SNSD retains the place that the party has held at the state level since the previous vote.
In the elections for the President of the Republika Srpska, Savo Minič received 52.13% with 90.29% of the polling stations processed. The candidate of the Serbian Democratic Party, Branko Blanuša, has 41.95%. The difference shows that the opposition managed to turn the vote into a real contest, but did not reach the necessary support to dislodge the ruling party.
The SNSD is also leading in the elections for the National Assembly of Republika Srpska. With about 80% of the ballots counted, the party's list has 143,847 votes against 50,177 for the "Sure Srpska" coalition. The final distribution of mandates will determine whether Dodik and his allies will have the necessary majority to independently push through decisions.
Dodik loses office, but retains power
The vote was held after Dodik's worst political crisis in recent years. He was convicted of disobeying the decisions of the international high representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina and removed from the presidency of Republika Srpska. The ban on holding public office did not prevent Dodik from remaining at the helm of the SNSD and campaigning through party candidates.
This is precisely the main political takeaway from the result: the formal removal of the leader did not lead to the removal of his model of governance. Through Cvijanović, Minič and the parliamentary majority, the SNSD retains control of key institutions in Republika Srpska. The victory also shows that the sanctions and court decisions against Dodik have not significantly changed the electoral support for his party.
What the result means for Bosnia
The voter turnout was around 42% – approximately 8 percentage points lower than in 2022. With a total of 1,432,269 votes cast, the SNSD victory came against a backdrop of weak participation, which left a significant part of the population outside the electoral process. Data are from the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Bosnia and Herzegovina remains divided between the Republika Srpska and the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Political parties continue to mobilize mainly along ethnic lines, and the three-member Presidency requires cooperation between Bosniak, Serb and Croat representatives. Analysis of the election results shows that this model has not weakened: the SNSD is strengthening its Serb base, while other nationalist parties are maintaining positions in other parts of the country.
The next test will be the formation of institutions and the adoption of decisions necessary for progress on the European path. Dodik and the SNSD are often in conflict with central institutions and the international High Representative, and such confrontation has already delayed a number of reforms. Therefore, an electoral victory does not automatically mean stable governance, but rather the preservation of the current balance – strong autonomous authority in Banja Luka and difficult negotiations at the state level.
Sources: Radio Free Europe, Bulgarian National Radio