Is Germany's population growing or shrinking? This question is of interest to more than just politicians. Where the population is growing, there is a need for more housing, schools and public transport. And where people are shrinking, this inevitably has a negative impact on infrastructure and services.
Study: more seniors and fewer workers
Overall, it is expected that by 2045 the population of Germany will have fallen to 81.8 million people, i.e. 1.7 million fewer than at the end of 2025. The forecasts are from the Berlin Population Institute. The problem is not only the decline in the population - what is worrying is that there will be more pensioners and fewer workers. Their number is expected to decline by 4.7 percent by 2045.
"People born in the 1960s are already starting to retire, and then the birth rate was high. In the meantime, the birth rate is falling more and more, and migration cannot compensate for the death rate" says the head of the institute, Katharina Hinz.
Germany is melting, but not everywhere equally, the study shows. As Hinz says, the traditional differences between East and West, North and South, and cities and villages are only part of the story. Today, it is much more important whether a particular region is economically attractive and whether it is in a good financial situation.
Politicians must act
„Demographic changes are taking place before our eyes and are felt everywhere. Their consequences can be mitigated, but they are inevitable and the longer we wait, the fewer opportunities for action will become“, warns Hinz.
Almost everywhere, deaths are higher than births, and the birth rate remains permanently low. It is therefore clear that migration is crucial for the development of the population in a given region. In recent decades, the influx of foreigners has had a stabilizing effect, but the aging of the population can no longer be stopped by migration alone.
As the researchers found, for a region to be attractive to foreigners, certain prerequisites are important: jobs with good incomes and living conditions, the availability of labor for companies, a good financial situation of municipal authorities, nurseries and kindergartens and functioning mobility.
Berlin is at the top of the ranking
Many of the large cities will continue to grow, the study predicts. It gives Berlin the top spot – its population is expected to increase by ten percent. But Hamburg, Frankfurt am Main, Munich and Düsseldorf in the western parts of Germany, as well as Leipzig, Dresden and Potsdam in the east, are also attracting people.
In this case, growth is also likely to be observed in the vicinity of the big cities. While young people are more attracted to the metropolises, families with children are more likely to prefer to settle outside the cities. At the bottom of the ranking among the German regions are many of the sparsely populated areas, mainly in the eastern part of the country. It is there that the size of the working-age population is declining the most – it is expected to shrink by up to 18 percent by 2045. Therefore, the race to attract labor will become one of the main demographic challenges, the authors of the study note.
In this race, the states of Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg have the best chances. Bavaria is particularly attractive with its well-developed economy and functioning labor market. It has also been found that employment among women, older people and people without a German passport is higher there than elsewhere.
Solutions must be sought regionally
The authors of the study have clear recommendations for politicians. The focus should be on structural challenges and regional differences. “What is a good solution for a growing large city cannot also be valid for a shrinking agricultural region“, says Manuel Schlupina on behalf of the authors.
Regional solutions are being sought, but this requires good framework conditions that are consistent with the financial capabilities of the municipalities. Mayors and municipal councilors have long wanted more freedom to act in financial terms. Currently, for example, they want to increase the share of tax revenues that remain for the municipalities. The authorities at the national and provincial levels are against it, but both parties are aware that in the future, federal finance reform cannot be avoided.
Source: www.dw.com