The role of Russian assets in European politics was described decades ago in Soviet military textbooks, as well as in Soviet "manuals" on sabotage and subversion. The military textbooks were published by the USSR Ministry of Defense. The sabotage "manuals" were written by the KGB, but were published in a limited edition under the auspices of the "Marx-Engels-Lenin" Institute (IMEL).
I studied the military textbooks while I was in the army. Access to the "Manuals" I got it later.
How does Russia implement its "pincers"?
Soviet military strategy, followed by the Russians to this day, is based on the concept of "flank encirclement" or, more simply, "pincers". The idea is that if you want to take something, you have to surround it on the left and right, and while the enemy is busy on his flanks, you strike in the center.
In the tactical "pincers", if you want to take Ahtopol, say, you surround it to the south through Sinemorets and to the north through Varvara. In the operational "pincers", you capture Burgas by surrounding it from the south through Sozopol and from the north through Pomorie. The "pincers" that the Russians tried to apply to Ukraine in the spring of 2022 are strategic - a strike from the north towards Kiev and from the southeast towards Kherson, with a strike in the center from the north towards Kharkiv.
Geopolitical "pincers" in today's conditions would look like this: a Russian strike to the north through the Baltic republics towards Poland; a strike to the south through Romania and Bulgaria towards the Western Balkans and Austria; a strike in the center through Hungary and Slovakia towards Germany.
In an ideal world for the Russians, the northern and southern strikes would happen simultaneously. But the world is not ideal, especially for them. The Baltics have armed themselves to the teeth and are ready to fight back. The southern "pincers" - Bulgaria and Romania - are not ready to fight back. And this part of Europe becomes a target. This is exactly what is happening in the last week with the most likely Russian strikes on naval targets in Bulgarian and Romanian waters.
The strategy to subjugate Bulgaria and Romania
Here, the KGB manuals already have a role for Russian assets in European politics: to work to undermine the will to resist in European societies. The immediate task is to stop support for Ukraine, instill fear and help Russians to pass through Ukrainian territory and reach the borders of the former "socialist camp". In this situation, military strikes on the flank will not be met with decisive resistance.
"The manuals" on sabotage and subversion, published under the auspices of IMEL, describe those sabotage and subversion actions that must be carried out in the countries targeted for attack, so that their societies are deprived of the will and ability to resist the future "pincers".
The first phase consists of provocations outside sovereign territory, without the Russians admitting that they are theirs. In the second phase, the provocations are in sovereign territory and the Russians make it clear that they are. The third phase consists of an open military strike on a target on sovereign territory. The fourth phase is political: a propaganda effort in the targeted countries to convince the citizenry to hand over power to pro-Russian politicians, who will be allowed by the Kremlin to beg for mercy.
Judge for yourself which phase Bulgaria is currently in.
This text expresses the opinion of the author and may not coincide with the positions of the Bulgarian editorial office and DW as a whole.
Source: www.dw.com