The low voter turnout in the first round of the presidential elections is an “extraordinary event“, said sociologist Andrey Raichev in the program “This Morning“ on bTV. According to him, this is the lowest participation of Bulgarians in all types of elections, including European elections, which are traditionally perceived as less interesting.
“This is the lowest participation of Bulgarians in any elections at all. National elections, as if... That is, we have an extraordinary event“, said Raichev. He admitted that some of the people who did not vote on October 25 may participate in the second round.
According to the sociologist, there are two main explanations for the result. One is that voters "punished" certain political forces, and the other is that the low turnout is a kind of "yellow card". "I can only say why it happened when I see what they will do in the second round," said Raichev.
Comparison with previous presidential elections
Raichev compared the turnout with that of previous presidential elections. According to him, in 2016, almost 4 million people voted in the first round, and in 2021 - about 2.5 million.
He noted that the usual pattern is for there to be higher turnout in the first round, and for it to decrease in the runoff. As an exception, the sociologist pointed to the elections between Georgi Parvanov and Petar Stoyanov, when the surprise of the first round led to greater interest in the second.
„This is a passivity that will eventually result in the return of several hundred thousand people to the field in the second round. Because these are their people. They are gone“, said Raichev.
Analysts pointed to the negative campaign
PR expert Diana Damyanova linked the low turnout to the negative tone of the campaign and the feeling that the elections were predetermined. According to her, the message „Don't vote!“ contributed to the voters' withdrawal.
Damyanova also commented on the incident with Sonya Koltuklieva, stating that the problem was in the reaction of the political representatives, not in the journalist herself. “This campaign was entirely negative“, she said.
The problem is that the Speaker of the National Assembly stood and watched, as if from another planet, this entire event. There are rules in PR - if a horse falls on the street, you get up and give it artificial respiration if you are in a campaign“, commented Diana Damyanova.
According to her, the low turnout is the result of a combination of the negative campaign, public events during the vote and “the hatred of Bulgarians towards the political class“.
The role of Rumen Radev and Iliyana Yotova
Political scientist Petar Cholakov stated that Iliyana Yotova was in the shadow of Rumen Radev during the nine years of their common political path. According to him, the first round showed that Rumen Radev is the figure around whom “Progressive Bulgaria“ is consolidating.
Cholakov pointed out that Yotova is trying to attract both pro-European voters and more conservative citizens who have sympathies for Russia or are associated with Orthodox values.
According to Damyanova, Radev did not help Yotova's campaign, but even hindered it. Whether the low turnout will change in the second round will become clear from the voter turnout and the distribution of votes between the candidates.