It is possible that the results of today's elections will be used as a typical example of the rapid decline of a populist wave in future political science textbooks. Several factors contributed to the unprecedentedly short time - six months - between the rise of the populist wave of powerful affective expectation for a "miracle" from Rumen Radev's "progressive" offer, and its complete disappearance, "sleeping down" in today's first round of the presidential elections.
The first factor, the political crisis that lasted about six years - a dead end after July 2020. Almost a million and a half Bulgarian voters trusted Radev not so much because of the expectation, but because of the hope that Bulgaria can be governed simultaneously stably, relatively effectively and somewhat honestly.
The second factor, the deployment of a network electronic algorithm for April 19, which purposefully maximizes the messages of an expected "miracle" with the coming to power of Rumen Radev. The potential of this type of algorithm is impressive, it is enough to recall the results of the Brexit referendum, which were modeled by the first mass attempt at such algorithmic manipulation by the IT company Cambridge Analytica. The massive information impact is multiplied many times in the last stage of an election campaign, but the bubble "swells" quickly with the cessation of the manipulative information pressure after the elections.
The third factor, the obvious helplessness in the state management of the PB and personally of Radev - both in economic and social, and in foreign policy. The growth of prices, the cutting of budgets, the escalation of the public deficit, the arrogant borrowing of new and new huge amounts of national debt - none of this gives hope to the average "progressive" voter, especially given his preliminary expectations of a "miracle", which were pumped up mercilessly before April 19. In positioning Bulgaria in the worrying international environment, Radev positions himself as a cunning individual, saying one thing abroad, and another - in Bulgaria. His external dependencies - towards Moscow, towards Ankara - became obvious. But those who expected "blossoming" of relations with the Kremlin should have been disappointed by the fuss of Radev, who has put himself in the role of a servant of many masters. And those for whom Europe is the natural harbor of the Bulgarian national interest are outraged by the inept withdrawal of Bulgaria into a position of international isolation and condescension.
The fourth factor, many Bulgarians voted for the "general", afraid of the risk of Bulgaria being drawn into war. The PB campaign abundantly fed this fear and linked - paradoxically and against all sound logic - our national security as a function of some inexplicable "neutrality" and "struggle for peace". Bulgaria's membership in the EU and the Atlantic Alliance and their policy of containing Moscow was interpreted as a risk - instead of a shield - for Bulgaria. The servile fuss over the Kremlin's arrogant drone attacks on merchant ships in the Black Sea, the frightened refusal to qualify the attacks and their author, the brushing aside of this significant challenge to our security in the face of public opinion - all this showed even the most unpretentious people that they cannot expect security and stability from this government. The war turned out to be closer, instead of being pushed further away from us.
In 2001, the first massive populist project of Simeon Saxe-Coburg-Gotha was implemented in Bulgaria, which offered the mystical glow of the crown as an alternative to the complex, rough, but effective government of the SDS-ODS led by Ivan Kostov. The royal charisma withered quickly, but quietly - without sensationalism. Today, the expectation of strong government by the "general" is collapsing quickly, demonstratively and with a speed that is desperate for its supporters. Six months after winning a super-comfortable majority and an impressive concentration of power, Radev's "progressives" today received a little more than 1/3 of the votes they received in the spring. The avalanche openly started down...
We will still discuss the chances of the two candidates in the run-off next Sunday. But whatever the results of the run-off - none of what was stated above will change very significantly. I assume that Radev and his majority will have about six more months. I am not sure about more - after today...
P.S. Today is a significant political day in the Balkans. In Bulgaria, the clumsy attempt to replicate the Orban regime of the last six months in the person of Radev suffered a fair and irreversible defeat. In Serbia, student protesters removed one of the most repulsive authoritarian regimes in the country and in the Balkans since the dethronement of Milosevic - the Vucic regime. Congratulations to all who are looking in the direction of a truly open, European Balkans.