“In midterm elections, the old rule comes into play: the president loses, regardless of whether he is a Republican or a Democrat, regardless of whether he is good or bad” – Donald Trump told reporters at the White House on Friday. And, as is often the case, his words are only partly true.
Yes, American voters usually use midterm elections to create a counterweight to the president and strengthen the opposition in both chambers of Congress. But whether or not the president is doing a good job definitely plays a role. Trump’s words – he is otherwise always confident of victory – are telling: he is clearly laying the groundwork for what everyone expects to happen – a heavy Republican defeat in the midterm elections, Germany’s public broadcaster ARD reports.
Trump – “with his hands tied”?
It is still unclear, however, how heavy the party’s defeat will be. Will Democrats regain only the House of Representatives, which is considered highly likely, or will they also manage to win a majority in the Senate, which is far from certain? For the second half of Trump’s term, however, this will be decisive.
A majority in the House of Representatives would give Democrats the opportunity to demand information from the government and establish investigative committees. As the opposition, their rights in this regard were severely restricted. A majority in the Senate also makes decisions on important personnel matters, such as the appointment of judges. A president governing in opposition to both chambers, while still retaining freedom of action in foreign policy, is “with his hands tied” in domestic policy.
Democrats benefit from Trump’s unpopularity
In the House of Representatives, whose members are all elected anew, Republicans won the narrowest majority since 1930 two years ago: Republicans took 220 seats, while Democrats won 215 – seats. That is why for months observers and polls have predicted that Democrats will regain control of the House of Representatives.
In this chamber, of course, everything also depends on individual contests in the electoral districts – but nationwide sentiment plays a much greater role than in the Senate. And this trend is unambiguous: According to numerous polls, which the website regularly aggregates, on November 1, for example, a total of 51.8% wanted to vote for Democratic candidates, while 43.2% – for Republican ones.
Since September, Democrats have significantly increased their lead. At the same time, as the war in Iran continued and prices rose sharply, the president’s approval rating fell. According to a Gallup poll, conducted for decades, Trump is receiving the worst rating from voters ahead of midterm elections in around 80 years, the German publication reports.
Voter turnout is the most significant factor
Nevertheless, the election outcome remains difficult to predict for several reasons. The polling market in the United States cannot be compared with that in Germany; most polls released in individual states come from organizations with partisan ties or are commissioned by the parties themselves, which often use their data to achieve tactical objectives. Therefore, such polls should be approached with greater caution.
But given the deep polarization in the United States, voter turnout remains the biggest unknown. In previous elections, Trump managed to mobilize groups that usually vote less frequently – including less-educated young men and immigrants of Hispanic origin. It is difficult to predict how any disappointment with the president will affect these groups.
Nevertheless, unusually high turnout is taking shape for these midterm elections. According to a survey by the University of Florida’s “Election Lab”, by Sunday more than 53 million people had already voted – by mail or at early-voting locations.
Will the way electoral district boundaries are drawn prove to be a decisive factor? Republicans have an advantage in the race for the House of Representatives: they control election authorities in more states than Democrats do. Over the past two years, they have sought to improve their chances by redrawing electoral district boundaries – a process that, according to their calculations, could secure them up to 15 additional seats in seven states. Democrats have applied the same tactic, especially in California, where it could give them an advantage of up to six seats. Depending on the scale of any potential shift in voter sentiment, these maneuvers could prove decisive.
The most authoritative source for election analysis in the United States is the Cook Political Report. The publication has a reputation as an impartial and independent observer of every individual congressional race. Since 1984, its forecasts have almost always been accurate: 97 percent of the seats designated as “likely” for a given party were ultimately won by that party. At present, the Cook Political Report projects 204 House seats as “safe” or “likely” for Democrats, and 178 – for Republicans. A majority requires 218 seats.
The Senate race is much more fiercely contested
Senators serve six-year terms, with one-third of the chamber’s membership up for election each time. Because two senators are stepping down, 35 seats are being contested this time. Republicans currently hold a majority in this chamber as well – they have 53 seats, compared with 47 for Democrats.
For most of the seats being contested, it is possible to predict with a high degree of confidence which party will win them – either because the incumbents are particularly popular or because the political situation in the state in question is clearly defined. There are only seven seats for which even experienced analysts cannot yet make a definitive prediction: those in Maine, Michigan, Ohio, Iowa, Kansas, Texas and Alaska. And these contests are likely to prove decisive. According to the Cook Political Report, Democrats could win between two and six more seats than their current 47 – while securing a majority of 51 votes requires exactly four additional seats.
Two questions are key in most of these contests: What experience and reputation do the candidates of each party have? And to what extent have the Republican candidates managed to distance themselves from the unpopular president?
Seven states are in the spotlight
In Kansas, Democrats have put forward one of their strongest candidates – Adam Hamilton. He is the founder of one of the largest Methodist communities in the United States. Politically, he occupies a centrist position and has a good chance of unseating incumbent conservative Senator Roger Marshall. If successful, he will become the first Democratic senator representing Kansas since 1932.
The situation is different in Michigan. Abdul El-Sayed, the son of Egyptian immigrants, represents the left wing of the Democratic Party. Although Michigan should theoretically be an easy win for Democrats in the midterm elections – especially given opposition to Trump’s tariff policy toward neighboring Canada – the race remains completely even. While El-Sayed enjoys the support of younger voters and immigrant communities, he is facing serious difficulties in winning the trust of part of the party’s traditional electoral base. Moreover, there is internal tension among Michigan Democrats; Democratic Representative Haley Stevens, who lost in the primary, even called on voters shortly before the election to support Republican candidate Mike Rogers.
In Texas, Donald Trump used all his influence and significant financial resources during the primary to secure the nomination of a candidate embroiled in numerous scandals. Ken Paxton is at risk of losing Texas – a state considered a Republican stronghold – to Democratic candidate James Talarico. These examples show that some electoral contests do not follow traditional party lines.
Will everything depend on Alaska?
If the Senate majority turns out to be narrow, the final decision will probably be delayed. Then everything could depend on Alaska – for two reasons. If neither Democratic candidate Mary Peltola nor incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan receives at least 50 percent of the vote, a particular feature of the state’s electoral system will come into play. Voters in the state also cast ranked-choice ballots, and these will not be counted until November 18.
There is another reason why everything could depend on Alaska: the US Department of Justice will probably challenge the election results if the Democrats win. The reason is that Peltola’s campaign has found and persuaded to enter the race a candidate with the same name as the incumbent senator – Dan Sullivan. This could confuse voters when they unfold their ballots.
Source: www.dw.com