After attacks were carried out last month against 7 cargo ships near the shores of NATO member states Romania and Bulgaria, the US-led military alliance said it would deploy maritime patrol aircraft, radars and drones to bolster its eastern flank in the Black Sea.
Three days later, on October 23, another vessel was hit in the immediate vicinity of Romanian territorial waters. And last week, maritime drones sank a Greek container ship in Bulgaria’s exclusive economic zone.
The unrelenting attacks show how the escalating maritime war between Russia and Ukraine is developing into a major challenge for NATO in the Black Sea and making vulnerable coastal member states such as Romania and Bulgaria. Military analysts say they have no doubt that the attacks were carried out by Russia. Video footage from the latest attack shows a maritime drone that, according to the British maritime security organization Ambrey, is of Russian design.
“I think this is unquestionably an escalation,” said Sidharth Kaushal, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in London.
Russia denies attacking Ukraine’s neighbors with drones and says European governments are the ones escalating the war in Ukraine by providing it with military assistance. Russia’s Ministry of Defense has not yet responded to a Reuters request for comment on this article.
ANALYSTS SAY RUSSIA IS TESTING RED LINES
Many of the ships hit in October were anchored in the area of a key Romanian canal used by Ukraine for exports, were heading toward this waterway or had departed from it. One of the ships was hit in Romanian territorial waters, while the other 8 were near Bulgaria’s exclusive economic zone.
Julia Jozja, director of the Black Sea program at the Washington-based Middle East Institute, said that in its attacks Russia was taking into account the West’s reluctance to move toward escalation. “This is connected to testing red lines with the full awareness that we will do everything in our power to apply the most minimal measures possible,” Jozja said, comparing it to Russian drones’ violations of NATO airspace in recent years.
An alliance official told Reuters that through these actions Russia aims to discourage NATO allies from providing support to Ukraine and that this poses a serious security threat. The alliance remains unwavering in its commitment to defend all its members, including those with access to the Black Sea, the official added. He noted that there is an obvious need for cost-effective means of countering drones and that the alliance has already committed to investing more than $40 billion in counter-drone systems over the next five years.
THE BLACK SEA IS A STRATEGIC TRANSPORT CORRIDOR
The Black Sea is of crucial importance as a trade route for Romania. The country is also developing its key offshore extraction project, Neptun Deep, in the Black Sea, thanks to which Romania will become the EU’s largest gas producer next year. In August, a maritime drone approached facilities that are part of the Neptun Deep project. Bucharest accused Russia of “systematic” attacks against civilian vessels, but refrained from attributing specific attacks to it, saying that it needed to gather forensic evidence.
Sofia has not accused Russia, but said that some of the strikes appeared to benefit Moscow.
The attacks are taking place as Washington reassesses its military presence in Europe and shifts its focus toward China. Last year, the United States withdrew 1,000 troops from Romania.
“Putin probably wants to take advantage of this moment in transatlantic relations,” a Romanian official said. “The attention of the EU and NATO is important, and their forces are currently turning their focus toward the north and the Baltic states,” he added.
NATO has strengthened its “enhanced forward presence” in the Baltic region countries and Poland, but has not taken a similar step in Romania despite requests from Bucharest, Jozja noted. “It appears that Brussels and Washington have still not decided whether the Black Sea fully falls within NATO’s commitments,” Jozja added.
The Romanian official stressed that his country urgently needs surface-to-air interceptor missiles, as well as radar systems, to counter the threats.
Jozja pointed out that the increasingly limited availability of affordable air defense weapons due to the war in Iran is a central problem for the West.
NEARLY 400 SHIPS HAVE BEEN ATTACKED OVER THE PAST YEAR
The sharp rise in attacks on shipping in the Black Sea disrupted a major grain and oil export corridor used by Russia and Ukraine.
Between May and October, the two countries hit 317 commercial and other vessels in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. This is more than four times the figure for the previous six-month period, when 74 ships were attacked, according to an analysis by Thomas Alexa, a senior analyst at Ambrey Analytics.
The intensity of the attacks varies as the fifth anniversary of the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion approaches in February.
In the third quarter, Ukraine carried out 137 attacks against vessels, while Russian attacks numbered 92. In October, Russia launched 38 strikes and Ukraine five, Ambrey said.
SHARP DROP IN GRAIN EXPORTS FROM UKRAINE AND RUSSIA
Massive strikes on ports and a drastic reduction in exports forced Russia and Ukraine to seek alternative routes.
In September, Russia exported just 0.3 million tons of grain through the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. This represents a significant decline from September 2025, when Russian grain exports through the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov amounted to 4.74 million tons, according to data seen by Reuters.
Because of Russian attacks, Ukraine halted operations at its Black Sea ports at the end of July and was forced to redirect volumes to the river ports on the Danube, from there through Romania’s Sulina Channel and southward through Romania’s Black Sea sector. But even along this alternative route, Ukraine’s seaborne grain exports fell to 0.81 million tons in September, compared with 2.1 million tons in September 2025, government data showed.
Russia’s main objective remains to further reduce these volumes, while testing NATO is a secondary task, said Andriy Ryzhenko, a naval analyst and former senior Ukrainian naval officer.
ZELENSKY WARNS OF THE RISK OF A FOOD CRISIS
Last week’s strikes took place as the defense ministers and chiefs of defense of Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey, a NATO ally with access to the Black Sea, met in Sofia to discuss the situation.
Turkey’s Defense Minister Yaşar Güler, who is awaiting a response from Moscow and Kyiv to a proposal for a limited maritime ceasefire, used the meeting to warn Russia and Ukraine to refrain from further attacks.
Turkey controls the transit of warships through the Bosphorus and Dardanelles under the Montreux Convention.
Several countries, including Egypt, Turkey and India, are calling for maritime ceasefires to prevent the consequences of disruptions to maritime transport at a time of significantly higher international prices for fuel and grain.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Saturday that there was growing international interest in a limited ceasefire.
Russia rejected the idea, saying that such a ceasefire would give Kyiv an opportunity to catch its breath.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed concern. “Everyone is talking about diesel and forgetting about grain. In a month or two, everyone will start talking about an agricultural crisis,” he said last month. (BTA)
Translated from English: Nikolay Velev, BTA
Source: www.bta.bg