Even before it took place, the meeting in Alaska is a big victory for Putin. The Russian president will return to Moscow with a photo of himself shaking hands with his American counterpart. And not only that.
"Putin's visit to the US means a complete collapse of the concept of isolating Russia", Russian media close to the Kremlin have announced in recent days. "This is a big breakthrough", can be heard from the screens in Moscow.
Putin has already gained from the meeting
The opinions of a number of experts and observers overlap - Vladimir Putin gained from the meeting in Alaska even before it took place. Since 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine, the country has largely become a pariah for the West. From the heavy sanctions, to the break with dependence on Russian oil and gas, to the issuance of an arrest warrant by the International Criminal Court, Putin has been completely isolated from most of the world's leading economies. The leaders of only two European countries - Hungary and Slovakia - have met with him since then.
But while Joe Biden has called him a "bloody dictator" and a "war criminal" within a matter of days, the Russian president is now expected to return to Moscow with a photo of himself shaking hands with his successor.
Instead of new sanctions - a meeting in Alaska
No one expects much progress from the talks in Alaska - not even Donald Trump himself, notes the "New York Times". And while Ukraine and Russia's views are currently diametrically opposed, they agree on one thing - this meeting is a big victory for the Russian president.
"Putin will gain from this", commented Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. "He needs a photo from a meeting with Trump." But that's not all, adds the reputable American publication: the meeting caused discord in NATO (a goal that Russia has consistently pursued) and postponed the imposition of new heavy sanctions by the United States. The Russian Foreign Ministry has already commented that Europe had sabotaged the diplomatic efforts of Washington and Moscow. Apparently, the Kremlin is trying to drive a wedge between the United States and its partners in the EU.
At the same time, Russia continues its summer offensive against Ukraine - despite Trump's ultimatum to either reach a ceasefire or be punished. That ultimatum expired, but new economic sanctions against Moscow did not follow.
Putin is not going to this meeting with the intention of reaching a peace agreement, said Tatyana Stanovaya of the Carnegie Center for Russia and Eurasia. "His goal is to secure Trump's support for pushing Russian ideas." Stanovaya added that Putin's move is "tactical" and aims to calm Trump, who in recent weeks has seemed increasingly nervous about the Kremlin's reluctance to end the fighting.
Russia will not back down from its demands
The Kremlin has already signaled that the meeting will not only be about Ukraine, but also about the possible restoration of economic ties with the United States and a potential new nuclear agreement, the "New York Times" also writes.
Trump said that he would probably leave the meeting quickly if he did not see the potential for achieving a ceasefire. But it is still unclear what that might look like. The American president spoke of "territory swap" - something like this would cause a political crisis in Ukraine that could lead to the overthrow of Zelensky. And this is one of Moscow's main goals.
In recent days, Russia has rejected the idea of a "territory swap", which would involve the withdrawal of its troops from conquered land. "Every place that a Russian soldier has set foot on will undoubtedly be preserved by Russia," Konstantin Zatulin, an influential lawmaker from Putin's party, told state television this week. "The New York Times" also quoted him as saying that this was Russia's "red line."
As early as 2024, Putin rejected the idea of a ceasefire. The West wanted this in order to arm Ukraine and prepare it for a new offensive. "If Kiev completely withdraws its troops from the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions, then we are ready to start negotiations," the Russian president stressed. For the Russians, however, these negotiations include regime change in Ukraine, constitutional changes, demilitarization and the rejection of possible NATO membership. Demands from which Moscow does not seem to have deviated one iota.
Will Trump side with Putin again?
During the meeting in Alaska, Putin is expected to try to portray Zelensky as the sole culprit for the continuation of the conflict. The effect on Trump is difficult to predict, but judging by their previous meeting in Helsinki in 2018, there is reason for concern. At that time, the American president said that he was more inclined to believe Putin than his own services regarding Russian interference in the 2016 election.
This year, Washington has repeatedly signaled its willingness to accept Russian narratives. For example, in February, the US voted against a UN resolution condemning Russian aggression - along with North Korea and Belarus. The US president has also repeatedly accused his Ukrainian counterpart of "starting the war". A claim that has been proven false.