Has Russia achieved a major breakthrough on the front in the Pokrovsk region? Which weaknesses of Ukraine is Russia taking advantage of and what are its tactics? DW spoke to Austrian colonel and military historian Markus Reisner.
DW: There are reports of a breakthrough by Russian troops in the Donetsk region. What is your comment?
Markus Reisner: Yes, if I had to summarize briefly - we are observing a breakthrough in the Ukrainian defensive positions and it is expanding. According to various estimates - already up to 13 kilometers.
However, we still cannot talk about the so-called “operational breakthrough”. Such a breakthrough would occur if, like a breach in a dam, the Ukrainian defensive positions gradually began to collapse, and the Russian troops - to advance deeper and deeper into the territory of Ukraine. So far, this has not happened.
Will Ukraine be able to quickly transfer reserves to Pokrovsk
At the moment, the situation near Pokrovsk is unclear, but it is obvious that the Russian troops have advanced to the north. There are small groups of Russian military there, but so far without heavy equipment. This is also due to the fact that Ukraine is trying to prevent the further advance of the enemy's heavy equipment by actively using drones.
Now everything depends on whether the Ukrainian side will be able to quickly transfer the so-called “operational reserves“ to block this advance of Russia, and perhaps even stop it by encircling the Russian troops.
DV: You are talking about the Ukrainian reserve. But this is a systemic problem for the Ukrainian army - many observers note that there are not enough people. Do you agree?
Markus Reisner: Yes, unfortunately it is, and I must note that I have been talking about this for several months now - since last year, when Russia took the initiative. Since then, it has been on its side. This became possible because Moscow gradually transferred more and more soldiers and equipment to the front. But also because the pressure from Western-backed Ukraine was not strong enough to stop Russia's advance.
Ukraine does not have an impenetrable defense line
In my opinion, Ukraine should have decided last year to mobilize men between the ages of 18 and 25. This is a very complex decision, a political decision with long-term consequences. But Ukraine now needs additional soldiers. Why? Many seem to think that in this war there is a continuous front line with fortifications and trenches on both sides. But this is not so. Ukraine's defense is built on separate strong points. These are defense points at a certain distance from each other, trying to hold the front.
The Ukrainians I talk to say that the Russian military is like water. They find every crack in the defense and penetrate it. And that is exactly the problem we see today. The Russians are slipping through these cracks between the main defense centers and are behind Ukrainian positions. Ukrainian troops often do not know whether the space behind them is no longer occupied by the enemy, whether they can still hold their positions. They also do not know whether they can still receive new ammunition or whether they will have to withdraw in order not to be surrounded?
DV: Where can the Russian army head if this breakthrough is maintained? It is believed that the Russian troops can continue their movement in the direction of Kramatorsk and Slavyansk. Why are they so important?
Markus Reisner: The Russian operational command can be divided into three sectors. There is a northern sector - the area between Sumy and Kharkov. There is a central sector - the area from Kupyansk to Zaporozhye. And a southern sector - from Zaporizhia to Kherson.
What exactly is Russia aiming for?
While Russia's attacks in the north and south are aimed at pressing and defeating Ukrainian forces, the main focus is on the central sector with five fortified areas - Kupyansk, Seversk, Konstantinovka, Pokrovsk and Novopavlovka. What is Russia doing there? It is essentially using the same tactics that we have seen in recent months, for example during the Ukrainian operation in Kursk. It is trying to support the offensive by using drones that are controlled by fiber-optic cables, thereby causing damage to Ukrainian logistics. And this makes these points difficult to defend.
With the support of drones, guided bombs and other similar weapons, Russian troops are trying to force the Ukrainians to leave the cities, cutting off their supplies, thus making their defense virtually impossible.
When we look at the situation in the central sector, we see that there are several important nodes and transport routes here, which serve as vital arteries of Ukrainian logistics. Advancing, Russia is now trying to capture as many of these nodes as possible and as quickly as possible, or to cut them off in order to deprive Ukrainian units of the possibility of supply.
If we look at the Donbass - Kramatorsk and Slavyansk are two strongholds - these are practically something like fortress cities. Russia is trying to capture a vast territory, perhaps even completely surround them. Will it succeed? We'll see. But this is precisely the intention that Russia has been trying to implement since last year.
What support does Ukraine need
DV: What can the countries that support Ukraine do in this situation?
Markus Reisner: First of all, it is necessary to strengthen air defense so that Ukraine can defend itself against Russia's strategic air strikes.
Second: It is important to understand that this is a war of attrition. Many of us have no idea what it means to wage a war of attrition. The one who has more resources, the one who has more power, will win and everything can end very quickly. Therefore, it is clear that the available soldiers, the available weapons systems and the available capabilities are of crucial importance.
Third: At the tactical level, it is evident that the Russian troops have already repeatedly adapted to the situation in recent months and years, and many of their combat tactics are completely reasonable and logical. This means that a paradoxical situation has arisen. On the one hand, we have the impression that Russia is completely senselessly sacrificing its soldiers. But on the other hand, these military personnel are trying to act very carefully at the tactical and operational levels. And it is important to finally recognize this.