As I write these lines, I am still forced to speculate about the consequences of the recent Trump/Putin and Trump/Zelensky meetings, as well as the talks of the European coalition of the willing in Washington. And the uncertainty about the fate of Ukraine and the development of the all-out war that Russia has been waging against it for the past three and a half years could continue for months, perhaps years. On the other hand, a double division - if not a real double fault line - can be traced for a long time between the three main participants in the debate: the United States, Russia and Europe (in the broadest sense of the word). This is written in an article for the French daily L' Express professor of geopolitics at the Institute of Political Sciences in Paris (Sciences Po Paris) Frédéric Ansel.
As president, Donald Trump 1 and 2 have never had any other passions (or skills?) than economics, or more precisely business. He runs the American state like a manager, and the sovereign functions - defense and foreign affairs - like a business. He pays little attention to ethical realities, ignores geographical and historical ones, and often neglects diplomatic ones. Instead of allies or enemies, he has clients, suppliers, partners, and those who interfere with profitable peacemaking. Moreover, his unpredictability is truly unheard of, unless we mistakenly classify this head of state of a great power in the family of such madmen as the Roman emperor Caligula or the French king Charles VI. An unpredictability whose effectiveness would be commendable if it were strategically organized, but which is frightening because it is clearly the product of a capricious character, frenzied dilettantism, an overgrown ego, or simply complete stupidity. It should be added that in his eyes, only the harsh struggle for power prevails, with its dichotomous perception - winners and losers - hence his fatal and unprecedented cruelty towards his Ukrainian colleague in the Oval Office of the White House in February, hence his sincere and shameless admiration for the masculine, authoritarian and "steel" Putin.
Europeans at the front with one hand behind their backs
In fact, Putin shares this last characteristic with his colleague. However, he is an ideologue. His main, even exclusive variable in decision-making is political-mystical. His goal is not the health of the Russian economy (let alone that of its population!), not profitable investments or even reindustrialization in favor of employment, but the return of the "lost" territories of Russia, of its former empire, sometimes tsarist, sometimes Stalinist. Ultimately, it is not the nature of the Russian regime that governs the fate of the Russian people (and neighboring controlled and/or enslaved peoples) that matters, but the degree of its expansion, its political and military power. Fearing the democratic contagion like a plague, the Kremlin leader plays out to the fullest the theme of the external enemy, which the Europeans embody almost exclusively.
In summary: for Trump, politics and attempts to resolve conflicts are a means, and the goal remains business; for Trump, the economy is an instrument serving the interests of politics. In both cases, there is masculinity, contempt for democracy, instrumentalization of religion in favor of politics and, of course, one's own power, and hatred of multilateralism. And therefore of modern Europeans. The third player in the Ukrainian drama is Europe, or rather, the one to the west of the modest Eurasian peninsula, which boasts two impoverished but still significant world powers, and "only" a wealthy but virtually unarmed Germany. Despite their many differences, French President Macron, British Prime Minister Starmer and German Chancellor Merz, like most of their European counterparts, believe in diplomacy, international law and especially in respect for border demarcations and treaties, and of course, in strict respect for democracy. They are prepared to sacrifice significant amounts of money and energy through sanctions to try to force aggressors like Russia in 2022 to surrender or come to their senses. Finally, they agree (in principle) not to intervene militarily unless their vital interests are threatened.
In short, they go to the front with one hand behind their back. When invited..