The Kremlin is intensifying its rhetoric against the West, issuing threats to NATO countries, in parallel with the escalation demonstrated by the Russian drone invasion of Poland. This is noted in its analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), writes News.bg.
Rhetorical threats and warnings
On September 15, the Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev stated that a possible "no-fly zone" over Ukraine, which would allow NATO to shoot down Russian drones, would mean "war between NATO and Russia". He added that Moscow would take action against EU countries providing loans to Ukraine secured by Russian assets, in some cases bypassing the court process.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov also said that "NATO is at war with Russia", accusing the alliance of direct involvement in supporting Kiev. Both strongly condemned European efforts to seize frozen Russian assets. Analysts say these statements are aimed at deterring the West from taking action in defense of Ukraine and European security.
Pressure on neighboring countries
In parallel, Moscow is expanding its pressure on other countries. The Russian ambassador to Norway has accused Oslo of violating alleged "Russian" settlements, and Russian foreign intelligence claims that Europe is preparing a "Serbian Maidan" – a reference to the 2014 protests in Ukraine.
Military exercises "Zapad-2025"
Russia and Belarus are holding joint military exercises "Zapad-2025" in the Minsk and Kaliningrad regions, as well as in the Barents Sea and the Far East. The exercises include the deployment of nuclear-capable Iskander-M missiles, patrols by Tu-22M3 strategic bombers, and simulated strikes against enemy submarines.
The Belarusian Ministry of Defense reported that observers from 23 countries, including the United States, Hungary, and Turkey, attended the exercises. According to experts, this is a way for Moscow to institutionalize the combat experience from Ukraine and improve joint actions with Belarus.
Political control through elections
Between September 12 and 14, 20 gubernatorial and 11 regional parliamentary elections were held in Russia. All incumbent governors retained their posts, with most receiving over 60% of the vote. The Kremlin presented the elections as an expression of consolidation around Putin.
Particular attention is being paid to the inclusion of veterans of the war in Ukraine in the government. According to the Central Election Commission, 1,616 veterans participated in the elections, and the program "Time of Heroes" continues to militarize local authorities in Russia and the occupied territories.
New strikes against Ukraine
On the night of September 14-15, Russia launched three S-300 missiles and 84 drones of various types aimed at Ukraine. Ukrainian air defenses shot down 59 of them. The strikes hit railway infrastructure in Kharkiv region and agricultural facilities in Sumy region.
On September 14, Russian forces also carried out a "double tap" attack in Chernihiv region - a second strike against emergency services teams as they were working after an initial shelling of an oil depot. Three firefighters were injured.