Two years after the start of Israel's war against Hamas, observers claim that the organization has been weakened, but not destroyed – despite the significant military superiority of the Israeli army and the assurances of Israeli leaders that a “complete victory” had been achieved.”Hamas suffered many military defeats, but it still has the ability to regroup and somehow managed to retain command and control”, Marina Miron, a researcher at the Department of Military Science at King's College London, told DW.
Before the start of the war in the Palestinian territories - preceded by Hamas attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023, which led to the deaths of nearly 1,200 people - the militant group was believed to have between 25,000 and 30,000 fighters. Over the past two years, various Israeli security sources have claimed to have killed between 17,000 and 23,000 of them.
Lack of evidence
However, the Israeli military has not provided any solid evidence of the number of Hamas fighters killed, and many observers suggest that it may be significantly lower. A year after the Israeli army began its operation in Gaza, some military reports were talking about around 8,500 casualties, the US-based conflict monitoring organization Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) reported in October 2024. However, this figure also includes fighters from other armed groups, and most likely unarmed Hamas members.
An Israeli database cited by British and Israeli media appears to confirm this. It shows that as of May 2025, only 8,900 names of Hamas or “Islamic Jihad“ fighters had been eliminated or “most likely dead“. At the same time, this means that over 80% of the more than 66,000 people killed in Gaza were civilians, the publications conclude.
Thousands of new recruits
ACLED suggests that Hamas may have recruited more fighters in the past two years - according to US intelligence officials, the number of new fighters is probably between 10,000 and 15,000.
“There are indications, including on social media, that more and more young Palestinians without combat training are joining Hamas's military wing “Al-Qassam Brigades“ and engage in guerrilla actions“, Leila Seurat, a researcher at the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies in Paris, wrote in August in the magazine “Foreign Affairs“.
Observers say it is in the interests of both sides to exaggerate Hamas's strength: for Hamas, it is a way to demonstrate strength during the ceasefire negotiations, and for Israel, presenting Hamas as a serious opponent could be “a pretext to destroy the enclave and expel its inhabitants“, she told the “New York Times“ Mohammed al-Astal, an analyst from southern Gaza.
While the number of Hamas fighters is disputed, one thing is clear: most of the group’s senior leadership has been eliminated by Israel, with only one senior commander remaining from the military council that existed before October 7, 2023.
Guerrilla methods
Hamas has changed its tactics over the past two years. According to ACLED, the organization operates more like a decentralized group, increasingly relying on guerrilla operations, quick-strike tactics, and explosive ambushes rather than engaging in direct combat with Israeli soldiers.
Hamas’ cross-border rocket attacks on Israel have declined significantly, and Israeli officials say much of the group’s arsenal – especially its heavier weapons such as rockets – has been was destroyed. But Hamas still managed to fire two rockets in September 2025 and stage attacks on Israeli soldiers, such as one in August 2025 in Khan Younis, in which militants used heavy weapons and attempted to kidnap Israeli soldiers.
Small Hamas units often appear in areas that the Israeli military declares "cleared," observers say. It is likely that some of the group's tunnel network, which allows for surprise attacks and the hiding of Israeli hostages, still exists.
Outside Gaza, there is also evidence that Hamas has stepped up its activities in the occupied West Bank after almost 15 years of relative calm there – although other Palestinian paramilitary groups still have the upper hand there.
And what about the civilian government in Gaza?
The extent to which Hamas still controls Gaza is a hotly contested issue. Hamas has a military wing that fights the Israeli army. But the group, which has ruled the coastal strip since 2007, was previously responsible for Gaza's civil administration - from hospitals and police to garbage collection. Some observers say Hamas's civil wing has adapted to the new situation. This includes a new plainclothes police force and an informal system of paying civil servants in cash.
But that could change. Civil servants have apparently been paid with cash that Hamas has been hoarding for emergencies, but that money is likely running out. And the Israeli military is increasingly targeting "individuals and facilities associated with Hamas's government, municipalities and police forces" to try to weaken the group's civilian control over Gaza, ACLED said.
In late September, a representative of an aid organization told the British newspaper “The Guardian” that they had not received news from Hamas since March and had instead been working with other Palestinian groups. "Palestinians report that since the war began, Hamas officials have been increasingly absent from public duties, including police duties, partly because of the chaos caused by the shelling but also because of fears of overt Israeli attacks on government structures," analysts at the International Crisis Group think tank said earlier this year.
For Hamas, "survival is the priority"
A former officer in Gaza's internal security forces recently told the BBC that Hamas had lost control of almost the entire strip. The security vacuum is being filled by criminal gangs and clans, and Gaza society has completely disintegrated.
Hamas also faces increased internal competition, with recent reports suggesting that Israel has deliberately increased its support for rival groups in Gaza. Many observers agree that it will not be possible for Hamas to disappear completely, and point out that at best Israel can only seriously weaken the organization.
“Hamas is an ideology“, Hans-Jakob Schindler, an expert at the International Counterterrorism Center, recently told DW. “You can't destroy an ideology. You can only weaken its military and terrorist capabilities”, he says.
Author: Catherine Scheer