The New York Times: Will Trump's new sanctions affect Putin's military goals

New York Times analysts believe that the new US sanctions against Russia's oil industry are unlikely to change the Russian president's military goals, but will generally add problems to the Russian economy, writes Focus.

Russian companies have long been preparing for the possibility of tightening sanctions, commented the founder of the political analysis firm R.Politik Tatyana Stanova.

According to her, (Russian President Vladimir) Putin, as before, is ready to suffer huge losses to achieve his goals. Moreover, Trump could well change his mind again.

"For Putin, this war remains existential, and he is ready to endure a lot", she believes.

The publication notes that revenues from the sale of oil and gas make up about a quarter of the Russian budget.

In addition, Russia's oil industry is suffering from the blows of Ukraine.

However, some experts in Russia believe that the new US sanctions will not have a significant impact.

Analysts note that Russia has learned to skillfully circumvent restrictions by using a fleet of hundreds of old ships that are not insured by Western companies and conducting operations through buffer companies in third countries.

And since Russia accounts for about nine percent of global oil sales, any restrictions on its exports will reduce supplies and push prices up, creating incentives for further circumvention of sanctions.

Journalists recall that before the end of his term, the Joe Biden administration imposed similar sanctions against the Russian oil companies “Surgutneftegaz“ and “Gazpromneft“, but they had a limited effect.

This is mainly due to the weak implementation of sanctions since the Trump era, believes the energy expert at the “Carnegie Endowment for International Peace“ Sergey Vakulenko.

"Lukoil will face serious problems, but these will be Lukoil's problems, not Russia's“, he is convinced.

But overall, the NYT writes, the Russian economy is facing problems, even if they are not enough to force Putin to change course.

Even before this week, Russia's oil and gas revenues were forecast to fall to about $100 billion this year from almost $135 billion in 2024, largely due to the decline in oil prices.

And the Russian central bank's efforts to reduce inflation by raising interest rates have stopped the military boom, bringing economic growth rates to about 1% this year compared to more than 4% in 2023 and 2024, the journalists summarize.