Kupyansk is a bright spot in Ukraine’s defence, but the outlook remains bleak

The Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) have launched a successful counter-attack in Kupyansk, liberating most of the town, leaving small groups of Russian troops surrounded – just weeks after Vladimir Putin declared the town captured by Russia. The Kupyansk operation is a major positive in Ukraine’s defence, but the outlook for the front as a whole remains bleak, writes The Economist.

Much of the Kupyansk operation remains a mystery, partly because it is still ongoing. But it could also be because Ukraine is keeping secret the methods it hopes will help it regain territory in other areas.

"There are war games and different options, but these are things the enemy should not know about", said Igor Obolensky, commander of the Kharkov Corps, which developed the initial plan for the operation. "First of all, it is creative thinking, sensing the enemy, understanding his rhythm."

Elsewhere, things are not so rosy.

The counteroffensive in Kupyansk is one of the few bright spots for Ukraine, but elsewhere Russia continues to use its superiority in manpower and equipment, and Ukrainian defenses are retreating faster than at any time since the start of the war. A Ukrainian intelligence source said that the Russian Fifth Army is "within a few weeks" ahead of its operational plan, advancing westward near the town of Gulyaipole in Zaporizhia Oblast.

The 22-month defense of Pokrovsk and Mirnograd is also coming to an end. An infantryman from the 38th Brigade said that his unit entered Mirnograd only after two other military brigades refused because “someone had to do the job”. By early December, the city was effectively surrounded, with no safe exits and no order to retreat.

A similar grim picture is emerging in Seversk, Donetsk Oblast. Due to its hilltop location, Seversk served as a Ukrainian outpost, blocking Russian advances towards Slavyansk and Kramatorsk, but by mid-December Russia had taken control of most of the city, with some troops already advancing beyond its borders.

A senior Ukrainian officer told The Economist that key positions could have been held if reserves had been brought in. But that never happened:

“If the line of defense were breached now, it would not be a local retreat. Seversk is just the first stone. It would set off a chain reaction of panic.“

Key challenges

Ukraine is fighting in the Donbass and Zaporizhia for three reasons, the article notes. The first is its problems with conscription and logistics. Russia, by contrast, relies on a much larger reserve and has no particular difficulty in finding new recruits. A source from the General Staff of Ukraine reported that in the first half of 2025, the Russian army, despite heavy losses, was replenished by an average of 8,000-9,000 soldiers per month, while Ukraine has barely managed to recover its losses.

"They are still exceeding their recruitment plans by 20-30%", the Ukrainian intelligence officer emphasizes. "They are creating conditions in the regions where people are choosing between starvation and signing a contract with the armed forces."

The second factor is Russia's growing skill in drone warfare. Casualties among drone operators and others in the rear areas are now higher than among front-line infantry, a remarkable change since the beginning of the war.

The third factor is the problems with command on the ground. When Russian forces encounter a coordinated, systematic defense, they stop to avoid losses,'' notes the commander of an elite Ukrainian drone unit that took part in the attack on Kupyansk.

"The Russian offensive is clearly designed to demonstrate confidence during negotiations. It may work, but it is costly. At the same time, the tactical success in Kupyansk showed that Ukraine's strength is sometimes greater than it seems“, summarizes The Economist.

The situation on the front

UNIAN reported earlier that, according to a DeepState report, the Russians had captured the village of Serebryanka in Donetsk region and had advanced in the area of ​​six settlements, namely near Dronivka, Svyato-Pokrovsky, Zvanovka, Pazeny, in Seversk and Pereyzne.

The French newspaper Le Figaro wrote that the simultaneous crises on several front lines from Kupyansk to the eastern part of Dnipropetrovsk region indicate the growing exhaustion of the Ukrainian army, which lacks the strength to restrain the Russians in all important directions.