Ukraine is preparing for a future in which it cannot fully rely on external security guarantees, and plans to build a powerful military and defense-industrial capacity to deter Russia from a new attack, even in the event of a possible peace agreement, writes "Politico".
Last year, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called on Kiev to turn the country "into a steel hedgehog, indigestible for current and future aggressors" - a concept that Ukrainian authorities are increasingly openly embracing as the basis of their security.
"Ukraine has undergone a fundamental rethinking of what security guarantees mean and what they should be based on," said Alena Getmanchuk, head of Ukraine's mission to NATO. "Today, however, there is a clear understanding that the basis of any security guarantees should be the Ukrainian army and its defense industry."
The approach includes maintaining a large standing army, investing in drones, missiles and electronic warfare, and expanding local weapons production. Kiev insists on maintaining an army of around 800,000 and has outlined plans for modernization, including a potential deal for up to 150 Swedish Saab Gripen fighter jets.
Security guarantees are key after U.S. President Donald Trump ruled out Ukraine joining NATO, Kiev's preferred option for protection under Article 5. "In addition to strong armed forces, Ukraine needs solid security guarantees," NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said, stressing that allies were discussing the deployment of troops, aircraft and ships after a possible deal.
But Moscow has signaled it will oppose such arrangements. "Obviously, these are guarantees for the Ukrainian regime, which is pursuing a Russophobic, neo-Nazi political course," Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said.
Ukrainian concerns are also fueled by the unpredictability of American policy. "Would Trump start a war with Russia over Ukraine? Absolutely not", wrote analyst Timothy Ash.
As a result, Kiev is increasing its focus on its own military power. "The longer the war drags on, the more Ukrainians are convinced that they must rely primarily on themselves," said Getmanchuk.
The Defense Ministry reports a large-scale expansion in the production of drones, missiles and ammunition, but emphasizes the need for structural reforms. "But it is impossible to fight with new technologies while relying on an old organizational structure," said Minister Mykhailo Fedorov.
Ukrainian defense industry has a production capacity of about $35 billion per year, but a lack of funding and long-term contracts leaves up to 60% of it unused. The EU is offering new opportunities through large-scale loan and defense programs, also open to Ukrainian manufacturers.
For President Volodymyr Zelensky, the conclusion is clear: "With such a neighbor, Ukrainians must be equally effective masters of their country's defense, so that Ukraine will always be independent and free from Russia."