David Jallivand is a researcher at the German Council on Foreign Relations and managing director of the consultancy firm "Orient Matters". The German public broadcaster ARD spoke to him about the escalation of the war in Iran and what lies ahead for the Gulf states.
ARD: Before the current war, Iran was considered very weakened. Now, with various reactions and attacks, it has shown that it can take the entire region and the global economy hostage. Couldn't this have been foreseen?
David Jallivand: The fact is that in recent years Iran has lost a lot of its influence in the region. A number of military groups allied with Iran have been seriously weakened. Iran has lost its most important state partner - the Assad regime in Syria. Against this background, the impression has been established that Iran's positions have weakened. This is certainly true against the background of the situation years ago. Despite everything, however, the Iranian danger should not be underestimated. Iranian authorities and strategists have always made it clear how they would react to a major blow from Israel and the US - by regionalizing the conflict. That is, what we are currently observing cannot be described as unexpected.
Tehran has drawn conclusions from previous attacks
What impact will this have outside the war, which will eventually end? Will Iran not emerge from it even stronger - perhaps not in terms of its immediate military capabilities, but in terms of its potential for pressure on the region and the global economy?
D. Jalilvand: Despite all the damage that Iran is currently inflicting on the region, Tehran's capabilities will be significantly limited as a result of the war. Some supporters of the war say that the very limitation of the nuclear program will be an achievement. In addition, important parts of Iran's infrastructure have been damaged.
The economic consequences of the war will be enormous - against the background of an already very tense socio-economic situation. Therefore, I would not necessarily say that Iran will emerge from this war stronger, but it is a fact that an attack on the country's territory leads to significant economic and political costs, which also have an impact on the world economy.
Many in Iran believe that Tehran's response to previous attacks was too weak, and this motivated the US and Israel to attack now. This is key to understanding the current Iranian approach - Tehran is trying to demonstrate this time that an attack on it will undoubtedly destabilize the entire region, and the world economy. They are not only trying to increase the cost of the war to create conditions for a ceasefire that would be advantageous from an Iranian perspective, but they are also trying to restore their deterrence capabilities in the future.
The huge problem for the Gulf states
The Gulf states are suffering both short-term and long-term losses from this war. Their image as a safe place to invest will probably also suffer. What does this mean for them?
D. Jalilvand: This war is the worst-case scenario for the Gulf states. They have forced an economic and social model that is based on the fact that they represent a kind of island of stability in a very complex geopolitical neighborhood; that they provide opportunities for investment and diversification beyond oil; that they are the center of the world economy in terms of supply chains, maritime trade, but also air traffic. All of this has been called into question by this war.
But there is something even worse - in recent weeks and months they have been warning that such a war could develop in this way. They traditionally have close ties with the United States, have invested there, maintain a strategic partnership. Some Gulf states have normalized their relations with Israel. However, all of this ultimately did not help and could not deter the Trump administration from attacks on Iran, undertaken jointly with Israel.
How do you assess the repercussions on relations with the United States as a partner in this region and on Israel? Will the Arab states orient themselves in a new way?
D. Jalilvand: They will certainly have to rethink their relations with the United States. If only because the current model is no longer functioning, as we see, and Iranian missiles are hitting the Gulf states and destroying central elements of the economic infrastructure there. I think it's too early to say that they will completely turn their backs on the US, and they have no alternative. Neither the Chinese nor the Russians would be willing or able to offer them a security partnership in this form.
But they need to reorient themselves and consider whether they can somehow come up with a formula that will guarantee their security in the future. In this sense, the challenges facing the Gulf states are not much different from those facing us in Europe, after having maintained a security partnership with the US for a long time, but we are no longer sure how long it will continue to exist in the future. That is why, in my opinion, the Gulf states are also important diplomatic partners for Europe.
Can you imagine the Gulf states intervening in the war? And what would be the most desirable outcome for them?
D. Jalilvand: The most desirable outcome would certainly be for the war to end as quickly as possible. The big strategic question facing the Gulf states is whether if they intervene, it will bring them closer to the goal of achieving a ceasefire or not. I cannot imagine that such an intervention could bring the fighting to a quick end.
We must remember that we have already seen a series of escalations in the Middle East, but we have not yet reached a tipping point. Iran has the capacity to expand the conflict even further, it could attack the energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf even more intensively, it could activate the Houthis in Yemen, who have so far been rather restrained. There are a number of points where the Gulf states are vulnerable - such as the seawater desalination plants on which the metropolises there depend heavily and which have so far remained relatively unscathed.
Author: Eckart Aretz (ARD)