Approximately half of Iran's missile launchers are still intact and thousands of kamikaze drones remain in Iran's arsenal despite daily US and Israeli strikes on military targets over the past five weeks. That's according to recent U.S. intelligence assessments, three sources told CNN.
"They still have the capacity to wreak absolute havoc across the region," one of the sources warned of Iran.
The overall U.S. intelligence assessment could include launchers that are currently inaccessible, such as those buried underground by strikes but not destroyed.
Thousands of Iranian drones still exist - roughly 50 percent of the country's drone capabilities, the intelligence community says. Additionally, a large percentage of Iran's coastal defense cruise missiles are reportedly intact, consistent with the fact that the U.S. is not focusing its air campaign on coastal military assets, although they have hit ships. These missiles serve as a key capability that allows Iran to threaten shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
The intelligence offers a more nuanced picture of Iran's continued capabilities than the sweeping assessments of military victory made publicly by President Donald Trump and administration officials.
In an address to the nation on Wednesday night, Trump said that "Iran's ability to launch missiles and drones has been drastically reduced, and their weapons factories and missile launchers have been destroyed and very few of them remain".
As of Wednesday, the United States had struck more than 12,300 targets in Iran, according to U.S. Central Command. The sources said intelligence showed that the US military had weakened Iran's military capabilities and that key senior leaders had been killed in US and Israeli strikes, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and Ali Larijani, the head of Iran's National Security Council.
In addition to the country's missile launchers, Iran maintains a large number of missiles.
In public comments, the Pentagon has cited a reduction in the total number of missiles launched by Iran, not what has been destroyed. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on March 19 that "ballistic missile attacks on our forces have decreased by 90% since the beginning of the conflict, and the same goes for single-target drones, such as kamikaze drones, which have decreased by 90%."
In response to a question about the latest figures, White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said that "anonymous sources are desperate to attack President Trump and to discredit the incredible work of our American military in achieving the objectives of Operation Epic Fury."
"Here are the facts: Iranian ballistic missile and drone attacks have decreased by 90%, their navy has been destroyed, 2/3 of their production facilities have been damaged or destroyed, and the United States and Israel have overwhelming air superiority over Iran," she said. "The terrorist regime has been militarily destroyed and its bleak situation grows bleaker by the day - their only hope is to make a deal with President Trump's administration and abandon their nuclear ambitions forever. Otherwise, they will be hit harder than ever."
An administration official added that Iran's ballistic missiles were being destroyed rapidly.
However, Israel, Gulf states and US military personnel continue to be subjected to regular missile and drone attacks.
Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell disputed the information, calling it "completely false."
"The US military has delivered a crippling series of strikes on the Iranian regime," he said. "We are ahead of schedule in achieving our military objectives: to destroy Iran's missile arsenal, to destroy their naval forces, to destroy their terrorist proxies and to ensure that Iran never acquires a nuclear weapon".
Israeli military officials estimate a lower number of operational Iranian launchers - approximately 20-25%. However, Israel does not include launchers that have been buried or become inaccessible in caves and tunnels in the number of surviving launchers, said one of the sources familiar with the U.S. intelligence assessment and an Israeli source.
On Wednesday, Trump set a deadline for ending U.S. operations of two to three weeks.
The first source said such a goal was unrealistic, given how much terrain remains that Iran could use.
"We can keep screwing them over, I have no doubt, but you're crazy if you think that's going to happen in two weeks," the source stressed.
Hegseth said this week at a briefing that Iran's firepower continues to decline.
"Yes, they will still fire some missiles, but we will shoot them down," he assured. "It should be noted that in the last 24 hours, Iran has fired at least enemy missiles and drones. They will hide, but we will find them.".
The ability to operate underground is a major reason why the launchers were not further damaged, explained two of the sources familiar with the recent assessment. Iran has long hidden its launchers in vast networks of tunnels and caves — preparing for such a conflict for decades — making them particularly difficult to attack. Two of the sources said Iran has had success in firing and moving mobile platforms, making it difficult to track the launchers, similar to the challenges the United States has had with the Houthis in Yemen, one of Iran’s main powers.
The United States and Israel are increasingly targeting tunnel entrances to these underground facilities and the equipment used to try to restore access to them, such as bulldozers and other heavy equipment, said Annika Ganzeveld, Middle East portfolio manager for the Critical Threats Project. at the American Enterprise Institute.
The latest intelligence assessment also comes as the U.S. struggles to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, acknowledging that it cannot promise to reopen the vital waterway before ending the war.
According to the first source, the coastal cruise missile capabilities may still be largely intact, as they have not been the focus of the U.S. military’s campaign, and instead their firepower has been narrowed to what can be fired at allies in the region. However, those capabilities have likely gone underground, making them difficult to detect now.
And while Iran’s navy has been largely destroyed, the separate naval forces belonging to the Revolutionary Guard still retain roughly half of their capabilities. The Guard still has "hundreds, if not thousands, of small boats and unmanned surface vessels", one of the sources said.
As of Wednesday, CENTCOM reported that more than 155 Iranian vessels had been damaged or destroyed. Ganzeveld, however, said it was unclear when the U.S. claimed to have destroyed Iranian ships or which fleet they were referring to.
The Revolutionary Guards Navy is largely the force responsible for harassing shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, she said.
"There are certainly things that remain - proxies, as well as drones, and Iran has demonstrated in the last few days that it still retains the ability to attack shipping in the strait," Ganzeveld noted. "So there are definitely things that still need to be attacked if we want to completely destroy these capabilities".