Could the territory of Belarus become a springboard for a new attack on Ukraine or even an attack on another European country? What kind of danger is this and how realistic is it. Expert opinions.
On May 2, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced "specific activity" on the border with Belarus. A little earlier, at the end of April, he warned that "Russia will again try to involve Belarus in its war". According to Ukrainian intelligence, roads are being built to the territory of Ukraine and artillery positions are being prepared in the border zone.
How likely is it that the territory of Belarus will be used for the purposes of the war against Ukraine at the moment, and why is the Ukrainian president increasingly talking about it?
Belarus is preparing military infrastructure on the border with Ukraine
On April 17, the Ukrainian monitoring channel “єRadar“ reported on military infrastructure being built in Belarus. According to its data, this includes a border post near the village of Svecha, 860 meters from the border with Ukraine, a military camp in the Gomel region, 40 km from the Ukrainian border, as well as a training ground in the Rechitsa region.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) also writes about the strengthening of the Russian military presence in Belarus. A report dated May 3 mentions the incident on May 2, when a balloon from Belarus entered Ukraine. According to Ukrainian border guards, it was a repeater for Russian drones. Russian troops are increasingly using Belarusian telecommunications infrastructure for long-range campaigns against Ukraine, the institute says.
Vadim Kabanchuk, former deputy commander of the "Kastus Kalinovsky" regiment (Belarusian volunteers fighting on the side of Ukraine - ed.) confirms: Belarus is preparing military infrastructure - and not only in the southern, but also in the western direction. "First of all, this is related to the construction of bypass roads - logistical support for a future or potential front line," he adds.
Kabanchuk also points to another indicator: at the beginning of the year, a combat readiness check was carried out, which is being carried out for the first time on such a scale. “They are testing their capabilities and are undoubtedly preparing. Alexander Lukashenko is probably partially aware of the Kremlin's plans for the next stage of escalation. It is no coincidence that we recently heard him say that we need to prepare for war“, the representative of the Belarusian democratic opposition points out.
Experts: An offensive from the territory of Belarus is unlikely
In April, Volodymyr Zelensky also mentioned the threat of an offensive from Belarus, which was the case at the very beginning of the large-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. He expressed hope that Russia would not be able to involve Belarus in its “sick fantasies“.
So far, there are no indications that the territory of Belarus could again be used for an attack on Ukraine in the coming months, but we should not completely rule it out, says international relations expert Rigor Nizhnikov. “Russia is once again becoming more active in using Belarusian territory for its military purposes – this is a fact. The territory is used to control drones and to ensure Russia's radio-technical needs“, he says.
Vadim Kabanchuk also assesses the scenario of the repeated use of Belarusian territory for an attack on Ukraine as unlikely. “The Belarusian army does not have the forces for such an offensive, and the accumulation of a large Russian contingent for this purpose is under great question, since there is currently a shortage of forces on the Ukrainian front. Such an option is possible only with general mobilization. But the first signs will become apparent a month before the preparations begin, that is, there will be time to react and take some retaliatory actions“, he claims.
However, the opposition representative does not rule out Russia preparing the territory of Belarus for support during an operation against European countries. "If we look at the map, Belarus is in any case becoming a bridgehead," says Kabanchuk. Rigor Nizhnikov emphasizes that while the war in Ukraine continues, Russia does not have the resources to open a second front. "As long as NATO exists and is considered an active force, it is a huge risk for Moscow to attack any of the European countries. But this cannot be ruled out. This could happen in the next 3-4 years, for which they are preparing."
Warning to Minsk
The fear of a threat from Belarus mentioned by Volodymyr Zelensky is also a warning to Minsk - to think about the consequences if they still allow themselves to be drawn into "another Russian adventure," Kabanchuk believes.