Lars Gerdes, deputy head of the European Border and Coast Guard Agency Frontex, warned of a high risk of large-scale arms smuggling from Ukraine to Europe after the end of the conflict with Russia, Politico reports.
“Arms smuggling could happen on a larger scale. This could become a security problem for Europe“, Gerdes said.
He noted that after the end of the conflict, a scenario similar to the situation after the wars in the former Yugoslavia, when illegal weapons spread en masse to European countries, is possible.
Gerdes noted that Frontex has increased its presence on Ukraine's western borders and is closely monitoring the situation. “We have been preparing for this since the beginning of the war”, he said.
The Frontex representative added that he considered the risk to be particularly high in the event of a ceasefire or a peace agreement. “At that point, there will be a large amount of weapons, ammunition and explosives in the country – and many people who need money“, Gerdes said.
The EU police agency, Europol, reported back in the summer of 2022 that it had information indicating cases of firearms smuggling from Ukrainian territory by criminal groups.
Sergey Shoigu, then head of the Russian Defense Ministry, also indicated that some Western weapons intended for Ukraine had already found their way onto the black market and were being distributed throughout the Middle East.
In 2024, the country's Interior Minister, Igor Klimenko, assured that not a single weapon had left Ukraine illegally since 2022. He also praised the “colossal work“ of Ukrainian law enforcement agencies on this issue.