Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit China on May 19-20 at the invitation of Chinese President Xi Jinping, the Kremlin announced.
This working visit is taking place in an extremely specific diplomatic context - just five days after US President Donald Trump's landmark visit to Beijing. The meeting also coincides with the 25th anniversary of the Treaty of Good-Neighborliness, Friendship and Cooperation between Russia and China.
Unlike the lavish welcome with 21-gun salutes for Trump, Putin's visit is described by Beijing as part of the "routine affairs" of the bilateral partnership. Sources of the South China Morning Post indicate that no ceremonial parades or large-scale guard of honour.
Beijing is in a diplomatic mood. China has become the first country to host the leaders of all the other permanent members of the UN Security Council within a few months (Macron in December, Starmer in January, Trump in May and now Putin). This positions Xi Jinping as a key balancer in a fragmented world order.
The mood in the Kremlin is markedly optimistic, as this is Putin's first trip abroad this year. Spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed that preparations are fully completed and relations are at the stage of a “special privileged strategic partnership“.
Russia urgently needs to expand its markets for raw materials. Before the meeting, Putin announced that the two countries had reached an agreement in principle on a large-scale next step in the oil and gas sector. The leaders are also expected to discuss deepening cooperation in the nuclear energy.
Bilateral trade turnover between Moscow and Beijing has steadily exceeded $200 billion. A new package of intergovernmental and interdepartmental agreements is expected to be signed, strengthening financial and technological independence from the West.
The two regimes will coordinate their actions within the framework of BRICS and the UN. Xi and Putin are expected to issue a joint declaration that will serve as an indirect response to the “Peace Board” initiative commented on by Trump a few days earlier.
The biggest practical concern for Russia is the vulnerability of Chinese banks. The US continues to threaten financial institutions in China that service Russian transactions for dual-use goods with serious secondary sanctions, which slows down payments between the two countries.
Xi Jinping has serious concerns about crossing the “red lines” of the West in a way that would threaten Chinese exports to the US and Europe. Although Beijing needs from Putin's stable rule (due to their shared 4,200-kilometer border), China will continue to act extremely cautiously to avoid direct accusations of providing weapons.
Russian analysts fear that China will use Moscow's isolated position to demand extremely low and unprofitable prices for future natural gas supplies for Russia.