The Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Federation, General Valery Gerasimov, stated on state television that Russian troops are advancing in all directions and have established full control over 1,700 square kilometers of territory and 80 settlements since the beginning of the year, including the entire Luhansk region.
Independent analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) categorically refute these numbers, defining them as greatly exaggerated and part of "cognitive warfare" to simulate an inevitable victory.
Russian forces continue heavy assaults in the directions towards Pokrovsk, Konstantinovka and Kupyansk. Although at the cost of huge losses in manpower and equipment, the Russian pressure is constant, but progress remains tactically and extremely slow.
Ukrainian forces are stabilizing their positions through the massive use of FPV and optical drones, which seriously limits Russia's ability to make large-scale armored breakthroughs. Limited Ukrainian tactical advances are reported in places in the directions towards Slavyansk and Gulyaypole.
Ukraine has intensified its campaign with long-range drones, delivering heavy strikes on critical Russian energy infrastructure in depth (including oil refineries in Ryazan, Perm and Yaroslavl), which is seriously affecting Russian fuel exports and logistics at the front.
During an inspection of the Southern Group of Forces, Gerasimov announced that in just two months (March and April) the Russian army had captured 700 sq. km. The general reported that the Luhansk region was completely under Russian control. According to him, Russian units are maintaining the initiative along the entire front, forcing Ukrainian defenses to retreat.
ISW data shows that the actual confirmed Russian advance since January is about 381 sq. km (not 1,700), and in certain sectors Russia has even lost territory. Even Russian military bloggers (the so-called "voenkori") have cast doubt on Gerasimov's reports, accusing him of sending "beautiful reports" upstream and of prematurely announcing the capture of settlements (such as Kupyansk-Uzlovy) where fighting is still ongoing.