Ukrainian forces are beginning to restore the tactical initiative in various sectors of the front, according to an analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), News.bg reports.
According to the assessment, in recent months the Ukrainian army has carried out a series of counterattacks in several directions, achieving some of its most serious successes since the operation in the Kursk region in August 2024.
Analysts note that since November 2025, Ukrainian forces have regained a large part of Kupyansk, liberated over 400 square kilometers in the southern part of the country in the winter and spring of 2026, and since the end of April have regained control over several settlements in the western part of Zaporozhye region.
According to ISW, Ukraine's actions in the southern sector have created serious operational difficulties for the Russian offensive in the spring and summer of 2026. This has forced Moscow to reallocate forces between defending against Ukrainian attacks and maintaining its offensive operations.
The report also states that Ukrainian forces are close to meeting their targets for inflicting losses on the Russian army in May. Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrsky attributes the recent successes to the constant strikes against Russian personnel and the weakening of Moscow's ability to sustain offensive operations.
The commander of the Ukrainian forces for unmanned systems, Major Robert "Madjar" Broddy, reported that in the first 19 days of May alone, Ukrainian drones have hit over 19,000 Russian servicemen. According to his forecasts, by the end of the month the number of victims could exceed 34,000, not including losses from artillery and fighting at the front.
According to the analysis, the Russian Ministry of Defense is experiencing difficulties in recruiting enough new servicemen. In the first quarter of 2026, about 70,500 service contracts were signed, which remains below the monthly levels needed to offset losses.
At the same time, ISW notes that during Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to China, no final agreement was reached on the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline project.
At their meeting in Beijing, Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping emphasized the strategic partnership between the two countries and cooperation in the energy sector, but no concrete progress on the key gas project was announced.
According to the institute, Russia has a strong need for new energy routes due to lost revenues after the start of the war against Ukraine, while China is using its position to negotiate more favorable terms for energy supplies from Moscow.