Russia has reached a deadlock in the war against Ukraine. Therefore, fears are growing in European capitals that Russian President Vladimir Putin will try to reshuffle the cards by expanding the conflict to Europe, writes The Wall Street Journal, quoted by Focus.
Several European national security officials have warned that Russia could try to test NATO's cohesion by striking one of the Baltic states, Swedish or Danish islands in the Baltic Sea, or the alliance's territories in the Arctic.
Furthermore, US President Donald Trump's recent threats to leave NATO and his steps to reduce US troops stationed in Europe are increasing the threat.
Senior European officials fear that Russia may see an opportunity to strengthen its positions in the next 12 months, as the oil crisis caused by the war with Iran will create additional political turmoil in Europe, supporting far-right parties that are seeking to resume purchases of Russian oil and gas and to end aid to Ukraine.
According to representatives of European intelligence and military agencies, there is no indication that Russia is actually transferring troops or equipment to organize attacks on the Baltic states or other territories outside Ukraine.
However, Putin will face a difficult choice in the coming months. According to Western intelligence agencies, Russian troops are losing nearly 35,000 soldiers per month, which exceeds the Kremlin's ability to recruit personnel.
It is noted that continuing the war in Ukraine at the current pace will soon become impossible without resorting to forced mobilization, and Putin must somehow justify this step.
"If you simply declare mobilization for this war, you will send a signal that you will not actually win. "Therefore, there comes a point where they need to escalate the situation to justify mobilization. And this is a very dangerous point. Of course, no one sees what is going on in Putin's head, but this could be a calculation for progress and a change in the linearity of this war," said EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaia Kalas.
At the same time, as the WSJ notes, Putin continues to claim that victory is near, and there are no signs that his strategic goal - domination over all of Ukraine and a redistribution of the balance of power in Europe - has changed in any way, despite the problems Moscow is facing on the battlefield.