At the end of January 2025, the technology world was shocked by the sudden appearance of Deerseek R1 - an advanced model for artificial intelligence, developed by a virtually unknown Chinese startup. It not only competed with the best Western AI systems, but also did so with a fraction of the computing power and capital of its competitors - and all while circumventing American export restrictions on Nvidia chips.
The market reaction was immediate: losses in Western technology stocks exceeded a trillion dollars.
For The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) however saw Deerseek as a political testament: the country could achieve technological self-sufficiency despite Western pressure. The same logic is visible to the naked eye throughout the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030), formally approved by the National People's Congress in March 2026, writes the publication GIS Reports.
The Economy as an Instrument of the State
The author - the Swiss economist and politician from the conservative People's Party, Prof. Eric Schneider begins with what is the central goal of the plan: etc. "high development", which is a political euphemism for a tightly controlled, technologically autonomous economy, insulated from Western pressure.
The target growth rate of the gross domestic product is set at 4.5-5% - the lowest target since the 1990s. This is not an admission of weakness, but a conscious choice: KKΠ is ready to sacrifice short-term growth to build economic strength in the service of long-term strategic interests.
ΠThe plan calls for massive public investments in artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and modern manufacturing - a concept referred to as "New productive forces".
The goal is not commercial profit, and the construction of a "intelligent technological economy", which guarantees the country's strategic autonomy. The economy has been turned into an instrument of state administration.
Πr;evolution of the "dual turn"
In order to understand the new plan, it is also important what is left out in it. The "dual circulation" strategy, introduced in the previous five-year plan (2021-2025), relies on a balance between a strong domestic consumer market and international trade.
In practice, the domestic component is not materializing: household consumer spending remains weak, and GDP&P&L; calls for the structural reforms necessary for their real growth - including a significant transfer of wealth from the state to citizens.
Instead of stimulating domestic demand, China is pursuing a new strategy: to position itself as the architect of global supply chains. The goal is no longer simply to participate in globalization, but to transform it - so that other nations become dependent on Chinese standards and green technologies, while China reduces its own dependence on the West.
Internal Tension
On the other hand, the plan presents crisis management as a priority, writes Schneider. The real estate sector, long a major growth engine, is being displaced, and the leverage of high-tech capitalists has created a serious problem: they cannot absorb the millions of young graduates entering the labor market every year.
Youth unemployment poses a threat to social stability.
KK&Pi's response; includes the expansion of social services, but also strong political control - strict regulation of local authorities and suppression of destructive internal competition. The center tightens its grip on the provinces.
Three scenarios
The expert outlines three possible developments. Most likely is KKΠ to manage the structural slowdown: public investments are bearing fruit in AI and green technologies, the financial crisis is imminent, and China is consolidating its positions in global supply chains - even hostile nations remain economically dependent on it.
Πo-unlikely, but real is the scenario of social disruption: Chronic youth unemployment undermines the social contract between the party and society, and resources are redirected from strategic investments to social programs. This would force the regime towards more authoritarian decisions and a potentially more aggressive foreign policy.
The least likely scenario is global isolation: a coordinated Western response to subsidize Chinese exports - electric cars, batteries, semiconductors, which closes international markets while leaving domestic demand insufficient. The result would be a financial crisis and forced structural reforms.
The common denominator among the three scenarios is one: the 15th Five-Year Plan is not an economic document in the traditional sense, but rather should be viewed as a political strategy.