After taking up combat positions, a Russian army recruit remains unharmed for an average of 20 to 35 minutes. The main reason for this is drones, writes historian Peter Frankopan in an article for Foreign Policy.
As historian Peter Frankopan points out, citing Russian military bloggers, after joining active combat operations, a soldier can expect to survive from 10 days to three weeks - a period covering the time from his arrival at the training ground to his eventual death in battle. It is noted that most recruits undergo several days of training.
Data on losses:
Russia's monthly losses exceed 30,000 people;
Total losses since February 2022 have amounted to over 1 million people according to estimates from Western sources;
According to the same sources, the ratio of losses is eight to one to Russia's detriment;
The recruitment of new contract servicemen this year has decreased by 30%.
Every day, between 800 and 1,000 volunteers are joining the army. Due to the difficulties in filling the ranks, candidates are offered signing bonuses of up to $80,000 and debt forgiveness of up to $140,000. For comparison, the average monthly salary in Russia is about $1,000.
"The high number of casualties on the Russian side is explained by the large-scale increase in the number of military drones, which have established themselves as one of Ukraine's most effective weapons", the article states.
Russian blogger and veteran Alexander Lunin criticized the command for its poor treatment of personnel and said that if Russian President Vladimir Putin does not agree to direct negotiations, "the army may direct its discontent to the Kremlin".
Frankopan considers an internal coup unlikely, but warns about the political situation.
"The coming months are likely to be risky both outside of Russia and within it, as Putin tries to maintain his political positions", he states.
According to available information, Russia's military command is has committed to Putin to establish control over Donbas by the fall of 2026. In their reports to him, the military claim that the Ukrainian army is exhausted and the defensive line is weakening.
Based on these data, the Russian president is confident that his forces can fully control the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, after which he plans to use this as leverage to strengthen his territorial claims during future negotiations.
At the same time, independent analysts note that the Russian leadership emphasizes the successes of its army and the difficulties facing the Defense Forces of Ukraine in order to argue for the need to continue military operations.