August is considered a "cursed" month in Russia because of a historical cluster of severe political coups, terrorist attacks and catastrophes. The public trauma is reinforced by the coincidence of summer holidays with a number of events that changed the course of history, writes Bulgarian analyst Ruslan Trad, creator of De Re Militari.
This year, "Russian August" began earlier - back in May - when Ukraine began to build a land corridor to Crimea with drones. Then the targeted destruction of oil infrastructure facilities began, and in the last week - massive strikes on ships traveling to Crimea. As a result: August has not yet begun, and processes have begun in Russia that were not even seen in the turbulent 1990s and that were unthinkable back in the spring:
- after the ban on the export of kerosene and gasoline, the Russian Federation banned the export of diesel fuel, which otherwise had a large annual overproduction;
- analysts are talking about a drop in gasoline production to 65% of domestic consumption; diesel fuel production barely covers needs (for now), but agricultural activity with high seasonal demand is ahead;
- the occupied Crimea is getting used to living without electricity, water, bottled gas and gasoline; cases of cooking food on a fire in the yard are being recorded;
- the Russian armed forces in some areas have ceased attacks, with neither ammunition nor fuel being delivered;
How is the Kremlin responding to these problems? He openly declares that he will "ignore" them, that "the special military operation will continue", that "Russia does not agree with the freezing of military actions on the front lines".
It is clear that Putin is simply not being reported on most of the negative events (if he no longer sees them through the window), but the awareness of the real situation - which tends to worsen - is already emerging among senior officials. Then Peskov, forgetting that this is a crime under the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation, openly says "war". At the same time, German Gref talks about the first thing that worries investors: when will the "SVO" finally end. Even Novak stopped talking nonsense and admitted: "Yes, there is a shortage of gasoline because of the arriving drones".
The problem with Putin's entourage, which has undergone a thorough negative selection, is that neither individually nor together they would dare to bring the truth to Putin, who, as he himself said, is bored and wants "action".
There is action. NATO has already allocated $70 billion for 2026 alone, and the same is planned for 2027.
Zelensky said that Ukraine "enjoys the support of Putin's entourage on the issue of ending the war." But Vladimir Putin will be sad to go to dinner with his late friend and peer - the intelligence officer Sergei Ivanov - knowing that Russia is in ruins. And as befits a true tsar from Russian history, Putin will try to take to his "burial mound" as much as possible: destroyed infrastructure, an apathetic population that walks uncomplainingly under Ukrainian drones and will do so after the completely possible second wave of mobilization.
It should not surprise us, since this has been the main Russian "spiritual bond" throughout the centuries: its own population and its own territory have always been just a resource for realizing the sick fantasies of the next adventurer in power, and the population itself has willingly sacrificed and continues to sacrifice itself. Because of the fantastic picture of the world in Putin's mind, where he is the great and respected leader of the whole world, leading the victorious army, more Russians will be buried in the ground.