Ukrainian attacks on Russian fuel infrastructure and the worsening economic situation are increasingly undermining the informal “social contract“ between the Kremlin and the population of Russia, according to which the government provided stability and prosperity in exchange for limiting political freedoms. This is stated in an article by the French newspaper Le Monde.
The authors of the article note that Ukraine's latest attacks on oil refineries have caused the worst fuel crisis in Russia in recent decades. Of particular importance was the strike by Ukrainian drones against the oil refinery in Omsk on July 6. After the attack, Russia's largest oil refinery was forced to suspend operations.
As a result, the war is becoming more and more tangible in regions that were previously considered inaccessible for military operations, the journalists emphasize. As a result of the attacks on oil refineries, fuel depots and tankers, long queues have formed at gas stations across Russia, fuel prices are rising, and the black market is gaining momentum. At the same time, the Russian authorities are so far unable to quickly stabilize the situation.
According to him, it is practically impossible to quickly redirect supplies to rail transport, and importing fuel, in particular from India, cannot solve the problem quickly.
The publication also draws attention to the psychological factor. Researcher from the Free University of Berlin Andrei Yakovlev believes that the authorities are covering up the real scale of the attacks, while at the same time holding down gasoline prices, which is why the population is buying up fuel in stock. As a result, the deficit is only getting worse.
In addition to the fuel crisis, the authors also describe the general deterioration of the Russian economy. Heli Simola, a leading economist at the Institute for Emerging Economies at the Bank of Finland, notes that economic growth has slowed this year and the budget deficit has increased significantly. At the same time, according to her assessment, an immediate economic or financial crisis seems unlikely.
"For now, Russia can finance and maintain its operations in Ukraine, although it will have to make increasingly difficult decisions", the analyst commented.
The publication also mentions a report by European special services, which warns of the risks of a banking crisis in Russia due to the accumulation of problem loans, mass bankruptcies of small and medium-sized businesses and the high dependence of banks on a few large borrowers. According to experts, the new EU sanctions package, which is being prepared in July and will be aimed primarily at Russian banks and cryptocurrency networks, could further increase financial pressure on Russia.