Until the last moment, Özgür Özel fought to stay in the opposition RHP - but without success. Now the Turkish politician has founded his own party, and 91 MPs follow him. Does it have a chance?
The scenes on May 24 in Ankara were shocking. After the court removed the leadership of the Republican People's Party (RHP), Turkish special forces stormed its headquarters. They tried to force their way into the building, using tear gas. Representatives of the largest opposition party barricaded the entrances with tables and chairs.
It was only after a few hours that they stopped resisting. "We want to prevent an escalation of tensions and we are leaving our home of our own free will", party leader Özgür Özel said at the time. "Our only fault is that we won against the ruling party", Özel added at the time.
Revenge for the Republican People's Party's decisive victory?
The 51-year-old leader of the RPP was aiming for a success that had not been seen in 22 years. His party won the local elections in March 2024 against Erdogan's ruling Justice and Development Party, prevailing in as many as 14 major cities, including Istanbul. The mayor of the metropolis, Ekrem İmamoğlu, became so popular that he automatically became a contender for Erdogan's post in the next presidential election in the country.
Shortly after that, the prosecution began - İmamoğlu was detained, as well as a number of other mayors and their employees. All of them were accused of corruption and fraud. An investigation into the party leadership followed, which led to his removal by court order in May. Now, two months later, Özel has announced the creation of a new party.
Erdogan's convenient people are back at the helm
The RNP was founded in 1923 by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk and is the oldest party in Turkey. It supports secularism - the separation of the state from religion, patriotism and republicanism.
Özgür Özel took over the leadership in 2023 along with the party's reformist wing, thus opening it up to voters outside its traditional base and putting social democratic values at the forefront. All of this contributed to the success of the local elections. After his removal, the court returned the party leadership to Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu - Özel's predecessor, under whose leadership the Republicans had previously lost all elections. That is why he is considered Erdogan's preferred opponent.
Why the former leadership is getting involved in the current split and accepting the prosecution of its party members is the subject of much speculation. According to observers, it may be a political calculation that benefits Erdogan. It is this division that allows him to eliminate dangerous opponents before the next presidential elections, which are due to be held in 2028.
"Let's march together to power"
Yözel and his wing in the party had been fighting for it until now, but the increasingly politicized justice system forced them to split. He called on his followers to follow him: "We carry within us the unwavering hope for a new beginning. Are you ready for the great march? "Let's march together to power, friends," he said in a speech this week.
At the end of the week, it became clear that 91 of the 135 Republican People's Party deputies would join the "New Party". It was officially registered on Friday, making it the largest opposition force in the Turkish parliament. Smaller forces critical of Erdogan have backed Özel and called for unity.
Özel's new party has a good chance, says Seren Selvin Korkmaz, who heads the Istanbul-based think tank "IstanPol". A large part of the RPP's previous supporters support it. But success is not a given. According to the latest survey by "IstanPol" The electorate does not just want a continuation of the RNP under a new name, but a party with new faces who will build on what has been started.
Will Özel succeed in uniting the opposition?
30% of voters will support the new force or at least consider doing so. 19% will decide based on the specific proposals in the program and the candidates. The potential is close to 49%, Korkmaz estimates. Among the potential voters are those of the national-conservative "Party of Good", the pro-Kurdish "DEM" party, but also some of the supporters of the ruling AKP party and its ultranationalist ally, the Nationalist Action Party.
The big challenge is to reach a consensus between the expectations of the Republican, nationalist, Kurdish and conservative voters. Özel aims for exactly that - to form an inclusive center with a republican-social democratic basis, explains the political scientist.
The conflict in the party founded by Ataturk began in 2023. Then, after another defeat for Kılıçdaroğlu, the new reformist wing of Özel and İmamoğlu took control and called on the old leadership to step down. However, two months ago, the court finally declared the party congress, at which they won, invalid. As a result, Özel, along with the party leadership, were removed from their posts, and the party once again passed into the hands of the old cadres.
The next regular presidential elections will be held in 2028. It remains unclear whether the new party will be able to establish its own structures in at least 41 of Turkey's 81 provinces by then, which is a condition for admission to the elections. Unlike the AKP, the new political force does not yet have established networks or the necessary party funds.