Iran is using the ceasefire periods to coordinate its forces and its regional proxies against the United States.
This was revealed by senior Iranian officials to The New York Times (nytimes.com) in analyses of the five-month conflict in the Middle East, current as of 7:17 a.m. on August 2, 2026. Tehran's main goal was to drastically increase the economic and political cost of the war for the Donald Trump administration, without, however, drawing the country into a direct and uncontrollable military clash with the US military.
Coordination of the “Axis of Resistance“ during the truce
While US President Donald Trump has been announcing tactical pauses in diplomacy (such as the June ceasefire and subsequent truce proposals), senior commanders from Iran's Revolutionary Guards' Quds Force have been holding secret online conferences and on-the-ground meetings. According to intelligence reports cited by Ynet News (ynetnews.com), Tehran has used the diplomatic lull to regroup Hezbollah forces in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and Shiite militias in Iraq into a unified and coordinated front.
Iran's strategy calls for a gradual escalation of strikes against Washington's allies in the region. An example of this is the recent joint US-Saudi air strikes against logistics bases in Iraq, where Iranian advisors from the “Quds“ force, operating alongside local militias, were eliminated.
Disruption of shipping and the oil market
Economic pressure is the main weapon in Iran's plan. Tehran's strategy includes deliberate attacks on commercial shipping and oil infrastructure of US allies to provoke a global crisis:
Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz: Iranian forces attacked and seized oil tankers under US escort, saying the vessels were using "unauthorized routes". Tensions in the strait, through which about 20% of the world's oil passes, have reduced transit to critical levels. Saudi Arabia and Egypt Attacks: Iranian proxies have stepped up drone attacks on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, forcing Riyadh to redirect its exports through pipelines to the Red Sea. The Houthis immediately responded with a naval blockade and missile attacks in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and drone attacks have expanded as far as the Egyptian port of Damietta.
Tehran's political calculator ahead of the US elections
Political experts in analyses for the BBC (bbc.co.uk) and alternative energy media indicate that Iran is deliberately aiming to raise fuel prices internationally. Rising inflation in the US, fueled by high oil prices (which have approached and exceeded $100 per barrel during the escalations), is putting Donald Trump at a disadvantage just months before the crucial midterm elections for the US Congress in November.
Although Trump recently announced on Truth Social that he is ready for another “two-week pause“ in attacks on Iranian infrastructure if Tehran fully opens the Strait of Hormuz, trust between the two countries has been completely destroyed. According to analysis by PBS NewsHour (pbs.org), Iran is betting on a grueling proxy war to force Washington to make serious concessions, sensing that the White House fears a full-scale regional conflict.