The Kremlin is desperately trying to cover up its slow pace of advance on the front in Ukraine through exaggerated claims, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote in an analysis.
The Russian Defense Ministry and the pro-Kremlin news agency TASS made exaggerated claims on July 31 about the number of settlements that Russian forces had allegedly captured in July 2026 as part of this information effort. These Russian information efforts are likely also aimed at convincing Russians that the sacrifices they are making for the war are worth it.
Russian forces are advancing at no faster than walking speed—a pace of advance far slower than the one the Kremlin would need to break through Ukrainian lines and quickly seize the areas that Moscow reportedly seeks to capture by the end of 2026.
The pace of the Russian advance in Ukraine remains low two and a half months after the start of Russia’s spring-summer 2026 offensive, which has failed to achieve any significant operational successes. ISW has observed evidence that Russian forces advanced 37.85 square kilometers of territory in Ukraine (smaller than the area of Manhattan) in July 2026, an average of 1.22 square kilometers per day.
Ongoing Ukrainian counterattacks, the Ukrainian medium-range strike campaign, and Ukrainian drone dominance continue to limit Russia’s speed of advance and its ability to employ mechanized vehicles. Russian forces conducted several mechanized attacks in isolated areas of the theater of operations in July 2026, but these attacks did not lead to significant successes.
There is no indication that Russian forces will be able to dramatically accelerate their advance or restore maneuverability on the battlefield at this time.
Russian forces reportedly suffered their highest casualty rate of 2026 so far in July, paying an increasingly high price for the lack of a significant increase in the pace of the advance - despite the Kremlin's efforts to deny this fact through information warfare. Moscow is trying to convince Western countries that there is no point in supporting Kiev because Ukraine is losing the war. However, the evidence from the frontline is different.