The political future of German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is at stake, and scenarios for his resignation are already being discussed within the ranks of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU).
A serious earthquake in Berlin is a leading topic in the German media after Spiegel published an investigation under the title "How the CDU despaired of its chancellor". According to party leadership sources, the three upcoming regional elections in eastern Germany in September could be the final verdict on Merz's leadership.
Chaos with ministerial reshuffles unleashed discontent
The spark that ignited the current crisis was the personnel reshuffle at the top of the CDU and the government. It all started in mid-July after the unexpected departure of the previous faction leader Jens Spahn, which forced Merz to undertake large-scale changes. His attempt at a "political restart", however, turned into administrative chaos.
The chancellor announced to the media the dismissal of Transport Minister Patrick Schneider, without having secured his successor, which forced Schneider to publicly request his dismissal in order to end the "unworthy situation". Additional tension was brought by the appointment of Carsten Linemann as health minister - a portfolio in which he himself has admitted in the past that he has no expertise.
Merz's behavior was sharply criticized by regional leaders. Saxony's Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer openly expressed his bewilderment at the reshuffle, and the CDU party chief in Bremen Heiko Strohmann stated directly at a meeting of the presidium: "You are not running a company here, but a party."
East Germany becomes the chancellor's judge
Regional elections in states such as Saxony-Anhalt are shaping up to be a major test for the CDU. Local structures in East Germany are trying to distance themselves from Berlin. They are avoiding including Merz in their election campaign due to his low personal approval ratings and the increasing pressure from the Alternative for Germany (AfD), which is currently ahead of the CDU in a number of eastern regions.
The influential publication Welt notes in an analysis that if the CDU scores poorly in the three votes in September, the pressure to change the leader will become unstoppable. In the party's corridors, the name of North Rhine-Westphalian Prime Minister Hendrik Wüst is already being unofficially mentioned as a potential successor to lead the union out of the crisis.