New US intelligence assessments indicate that Russian President Vladimir Putin may try to test NATO's resolve with a limited attack on an ally in the coming years, the “Wall Street Journal” wrote today, BTA reported in the press review.
The reports outline possible scenarios - from a cyberattack to the deployment of unspecified armed groups or small-scale incursions into the territory of NATO countries on the eastern flank.
Previously, US assessments predicted that Putin would avoid provoking an alliance country as the war in Ukraine continues.
That view changed earlier this year, as Russia faces under increasing pressure.
Ukrainian drones are inflicting increasing damage on Russian forces and the oil industry, while Russian units are making only limited progress amid heavy casualties.
According to assessments, Putin, pressed on the battlefield and under domestic pressure to achieve victory, could become more dangerous when cornered.
The Russian president's potential goal in such action, even as the war in Ukraine continues, would be to divide NATO, US intelligence has said.
Moscow's recent actions are already causing concern. A Russian cruise missile fell in Poland and drones entered Romanian airspace, including one that crashed into an apartment building, the Wall Street Journal reports.
Intelligence puts the possible timeframe for such a Russian move between this fall and 2029.
The likelihood of a limited ground invasion remains low but is increasing over time, the updated assessments say.
V. “Washington Post” for its part, commented that the drone with explosives found in Leipzig is a “new form of threat“.
Although German authorities have not officially accused Russia of this incident, Western countries consider Moscow responsible for conducting a campaign of sabotage and destruction across Europe with the aim of undermining support for Ukraine and destabilizing European countries.
Russia has been accused of organizing plots to burn warehouses, target drones and attempt to assassinate enemies abroad, as well as stealing defense technology and carrying out cyberattacks against critical European infrastructure, the publication recalls.