The Russian Federation has the economic capacity to pay Ukraine approximately $20 billion per year in war reparations.
The amount is completely affordable for the Russian state budget, but only on condition that the final value of the compensation is spread over a long period of time - for example, 50 years.
This is predicted by the famous Ukrainian economist and former economic advisor to the Ukrainian President Oleg Ustenko. His analysis was published on Saturday morning by the specialized news publication Militarist.
A long-term plan instead of an immediate financial collapse
According to Ustenko, no international institution or coalition could demand and seize the full amount of compensation from Moscow within a year, two or even a decade. Such a radical move would have a detrimental effect on the internal stability of the Russian economy.
“If we try to take this money all at once, for Russia it would be tantamount to completely closing its own pension fund“, explains the expert, quoted by Militarist. He emphasizes that collecting reparations will be an extremely long, legally cumbersome and complex procedure in modern international politics.
The Enormity of the Destruction: The Bill Exceeds $1 Trillion
Although the sum of $20 billion a year seems enormous, it covers only a fraction of the real needs for reconstruction. According to official data from the Ukrainian authorities and international evaluators, the total amount of damage has long exceeded initial estimates. Kiev is currently demanding amounts ranging between one and two trillion US dollars, as the destruction of critical infrastructure continues to grow.
Here is how the main financial pillars of recovery are distributed according to experts:
Distributed Capacity: Payment of $20 billion per year for half a century will provide a total of $1 trillion. Current Needs: The World Bank estimates Ukraine's urgent ten-year reconstruction needs at nearly $588 billion. Frozen assets: The international community is already using the proceeds from frozen Russian assets (around 300 billion euros) to provide emergency loans for defense and reconstruction.The debate over exactly how Russia will be forced to compensate for the destruction remains a hot topic on the international stage. The proposal for a 50-year payment plan is expected to be considered by international financial experts as a more realistic alternative to full economic pressure.