Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia are strengthening security of key sites of their critical infrastructure due to fears that Russia could organize an operation under "foreign flag" using drones manufactured in Ukraine. According to representatives of governments, intelligence services and companies from the region, the potential goal of such a scenario would be not only to cause material damage, but also to create political tension between NATO allies, News.bg reports.
The warnings come against the backdrop of frequent incidents with drones and growing concerns about hybrid operations against European infrastructure. The four countries are particularly sensitive to such risks, as they all share a border with Russia and have seen Ukrainian drones detected on their territory in recent months.
Lithuania was the first to publicly warn that Moscow could consider a staged attack that could then be used as a pretext for Russian retaliation. Poland, Latvia and Estonia have also expressed concern about possible sabotage operations that could be aimed at testing NATO's response and political cohesion.
Moscow has dismissed these warnings. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov described them as "scary stories" that he said were being used to justify militarization against Russia. The Kremlin has repeatedly rejected accusations of Russian involvement in such incidents and says that Western countries often attribute hostile actions to Moscow without sufficient evidence.
Despite the lack of public confirmation of preparations for a specific attack, the four countries are taking preventive measures. In Lithuania, military units have been deployed to support special police units guarding a number of strategic sites. These include the LNG terminal, the oil products terminal, a key electricity transmission link with Poland and the Kruonis pumped-storage hydroelectric power plant.
Lithuanian Defense Minister Robertas Kaunas said the country does not underestimate the risks and is constantly exchanging information with intelligence services. According to him, the increased security should show that Lithuania is ready to protect its strategic infrastructure if necessary.
Latvia is also taking similar measures. According to Prime Minister Andris Kullbergs, security has been increased at critical sites across the country, including the Daugava River dam near Riga and the Inčukalns underground gas storage facility. According to him, the potential hybrid threat has become more likely than in previous periods.
For the Baltic states, energy infrastructure is of particular strategic importance. Gas storage facilities, electricity transmission lines and terminals are part of the system that allows the region to reduce its dependence on Russian energy supplies and integrate more closely with the European energy network. That is why such facilities can become potential targets for sabotage or cyberattacks.
The fears were further intensified in May, when Russia accused the Baltic states of intending to allow Ukraine to use their territory for drone attacks against Russian targets. The Baltic countries rejected the accusations. According to regional intelligence officials, however, such rhetoric could be part of the preparation of an information environment in which possible future actions could be presented as retaliatory.
A representative of an intelligence service from the region told “Reuters“ that according to the assessments made, Russian military and internal intelligence are considering a possible scenario for an operation under “foreign flag“. In this case, an infrastructure facility in Russia or in Poland and the Baltic states could be attacked with drones manufactured in Ukraine, after which responsibility would be attributed to Kiev.
According to the same source, such an operation could be carried out relatively quickly after receiving political approval, including at the highest level in Russia. However, these claims have not been publicly proven and should be viewed as an intelligence assessment, not an established fact.
The main concern of regional intelligence agencies is not only related to possible physical damage. The more serious risk, they say, is the political chaos that such an incident could cause at NATO headquarters in Brussels.
An attack by an unknown perpetrator using Ukrainian technology could spark disputes among allies over who was behind the strike, what the response should be, and whether the attack is part of a broader Russian operation. Such a situation could strain relations between European countries and the United States and test the Alliance’s ability to respond with one voice.
At the same time, regional officials are urging caution. One noted that warnings from allied intelligence services were taken extremely seriously by the Baltic states, but an attack could happen in the near future or never. This highlights the difference between preparing for a potential threat and having evidence of an imminent operation.
Poland is also taking concrete steps to protect its energy system. State-owned oil and gas company Orlen is analyzing alternative routes for importing natural gas in case key infrastructure is damaged. About 80% of the country's gas imports come through the LNG terminal in Swinoujscie and the underwater pipeline connecting Poland with the Norwegian gas infrastructure.
The operator of the Polish gas transmission network “Gaz-Sistem“ is operating under heightened alert. This shows that Warsaw views the protection of energy infrastructure not only as an economic issue, but also as a matter of national security.
Additional concerns have been raised by forged documents distributed on behalf of the state-owned company responsible for the construction of Poland's first nuclear power plant. The company Polskie Elektrownie Jądrowe said the purpose of the forgeries was to create confusion among interested parties. Security services and law enforcement agencies are working on the case.
Security has also been stepped up around a power line connecting Poland with Ukraine. The facility is important for the stabilization of the Ukrainian electricity system and is therefore considered a potentially sensitive site. The Polish electricity transmission operator and a military unit began guarding it in July, and in the future the army may take on similar tasks around other critical sites in the eastern part of the country.
Against this backdrop, Europe is also facing a series of unexplained drone incidents. Last week, a drone with explosives attached was found at the German Leipzig/Halle airport. German Interior Minister Alexander Dobrind described the incident as a hybrid attack, but authorities did not indicate who was behind it. Russia has rejected suggestions of Russian interference.
According to Wojciech Kononczuk, director of the Polish Center for Eastern Studies, the series of Russian accusations against the Baltic states may also have an informational dimension. According to him, while Russian forces remain engaged in the war in Ukraine, and Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy and other infrastructure cause economic damage, Moscow may seek a way to regain the initiative through destabilizing actions.
The possible scenario would have not only a military but also a political goal - to create a perception that the instability from the war could spread beyond Ukraine. At the same time, such a move would be extremely risky, since it would depend on the assumption that NATO countries will not be able to achieve a unified political response.
That is why Poland and the Baltic states consider the protection of critical infrastructure as part of a broader system of national and collective security. In the modern hybrid environment, energy facilities, telecommunications networks, transport infrastructure and power transmission systems can prove to be as important for security as traditional military facilities.