Kiev has long been considered a place with well-protected airspace. However, currently there are gaps in the multilayer system of Ukrainian air defense, writes ARD and explains that there is a shortage of Patriot anti-aircraft missiles. More precisely: of PAC-3 missiles, which are optimized for defense against ballistic missiles.
The interception rates of drones and cruise missiles are still good - they vary between 70 and 90 percent. But against the massive attacks of Russia, often with dozens of ballistic missiles, Ukraine cannot defend itself, the media outlet notes.
According to the Ukrainian Air Force, only about 15% of ballistic missiles were repelled in July, and the consequences of this are catastrophic: the number of civilian casualties has increased by 37%.
Every day - desperate calls for help
At the moment, hardly a day goes by without desperate pleas and demands from the Ukrainian leadership for more support in the field of air defense. By winter, 300 anti-missile missiles will be needed, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the American media outlet Axios.
According to experts, however, providing more help is unrealistic. Only 14 countries in the world use the “PAC-3“ anti-missile systems. None of them has yet received a real production license from “Lockheed Martin“. In this regard, all countries are dependent on the United States.
The European-Ukrainian air defense project “Freya“ was supposed to solve this problem. However, it has only just started. It may take several years before it is truly ready. Stockpiles of “PAC-3“ are reduced to a minimum throughout the world, except in Asian countries that do not supply weapons to Ukraine. European countries have already provided Ukraine with a large part of their anti-aircraft missiles.
It will take two years to replenish stocks
The United States and the Gulf States almost used up their missile stocks during the war with Iran. The Center for Strategic and International Studies estimates the current US stockpiles of “PAC-3” to about 800. Before the war with Iran, they amounted to nearly 2,300. And experts say that it will take two and a half years to restore the US stockpiles alone to the pre-war level.
For Ukraine, this means making even greater diplomatic efforts to convince its partners that new supplies are needed. At the same time, it is forced to hope that Russia's missiles will soon run out. In the first half of July alone, Russia launched two-thirds of its annual production of "Zircon" missiles, as well as more than the monthly production of other ballistic missiles, the "Military" portal indicates.
Russia has used up most of its annual production
The question is how many more of them Russia can produce and for how long. Back in late May, security expert Fabian Hoffmann concluded in his analysis that Ukraine needs about 140 PAC-3 anti-missile missiles per month to defend itself. According to him, Ukraine has only one option left to limit the damage: to strike at arms factories and suppliers in Russia.
Ukrainian security expert Mykola Bieliskov, in turn, believes that Ukraine's partners should send more suitable weapons for targeted attacks on Russian facilities and provide stronger support in reconnaissance of important targets. If this does not happen, the Ukrainian civilian population will pay a terrible price, Bieliskov warns.
Author: Rebecca Barth ARD