Taiwan is stepping up preparations for a possible conflict with China amid growing military pressure from Beijing and uncertainty over a new US arms package worth about $14 billion.
In August, the island held the 10-day Han Kuang exercises - Taiwan's largest annual military maneuvers. They included scenarios of a Chinese attack, a naval blockade, a communications blackout and strikes on military and civilian infrastructure.
The exercises signal a shift in Taipei's defense strategy. Instead of preparing only for a classic landing operation, the authorities are increasingly seriously considering scenarios in which China would use a blockade, cyberattacks, drones, economic pressure and a gradual military encirclement of the island.
Beijing must be ready by 2027.
The US Department of Defense estimates that China continues to develop the capabilities of the People's Liberation Army with the aim of being able to successfully wage war for Taiwan by the end of 2027.
Among the military options considered by Beijing are a large-scale landing operation, missile and air strikes and a naval blockade of the island. The Pentagon notes that the Chinese military systematically exercises elements of such scenarios.
However, this does not mean that Chinese President Xi Jinping has decided to attack in 2027. The former commander of US forces in the Indo-Pacific region, Admiral Samuel Paparo, emphasized that the year should be viewed primarily as a goal for military readiness, and not as a specific deadline for starting a war.
China considers Taiwan to be part of its territory and does not rule out the use of force to achieve unification. The Taiwanese government rejects Beijing's claims and insists that only the island's people can determine its future.
Taiwan practices how to continue to function under attack
The 2026 exercises were significantly more realistic than previous years.
For example, President Lai Tsing-te was evacuated in an armored vehicle to a command center in a scenario in which the government must continue to function during a military attack.
The authorities also tested how society would react to a communications breakdown. In some areas, mobile internet speeds were temporarily reduced to a level where mainly text services could be used. The aim was to simulate a situation where telecommunications infrastructure is damaged or subjected to cyberattack.
Taiwan also plans to examine the possibility of relocating weapons production lines and converting civilian enterprises to defense needs if major military production centers are attacked.
New US weapons still waiting
It is at this point that Taipei faces uncertainty about the next major arms package from the US.
In December 2025, the Donald Trump administration approved a record package for Taiwan worth about $11.1 billion, including HIMARS systems, artillery, Javelin anti-tank missiles, drones and other equipment.
A subsequent package worth up to $14 billion, including advanced interceptor missiles, is still awaiting the US president's final decision, however.
Uncertainty increased in May, when Trump said after a meeting with Xi Jinping that he had not yet decided whether the sale would be approved and identified the arms package as a potential tool in negotiations with China.
Later, a senior State Department official told Congress that US arms sales to Taiwan were not contingent on Beijing's approval or position and that Washington had not changed its basic policy.
Despite these assurances, the package remains under review.
Taipei Increases Its Own Defense Spending
Amid pressure from Washington, Taiwan plans to significantly increase its own funding for the military.
The government is preparing a 16% increase in defense spending in 2027, with the total budget set to exceed 1 trillion Taiwan dollars, or approximately 31 billion US dollars, for the first time. This would mean military spending exceeding 3% of GDP.
On August 15, parliament also approved NT$63.4 billion for a key military drone program, without reducing the government's requested funding.
The island is also investing in home-made submarines, mobile missile systems, anti-ship weapons and relatively inexpensive unmanned systems - a strategy that should make any possible Chinese operation as expensive and complex as possible.
China dismisses preparations as a "theater"
Beijing has reacted sharply to the Han Kuang exercises. The Chinese Ministry of Defense has described them as a waste of resources and accused the Lai Tsing-te government of creating fear of war and militarizing society.
The Chinese side has stated that the army remains ready to counter both attempts at independence for Taiwan and external military intervention.
Uncertainty surrounding the United States is becoming part of the defense strategy
Washington has no diplomatic relations with Taipei, but remains its most important international partner and major arms supplier.
American policy has traditionally left some ambiguity about whether the United States would directly engage in war in the event of a Chinese attack. The Trump administration has further insisted that Washington's partners assume a greater share of their own defense. The US National Defense Strategy for 2026 explicitly emphasizes greater engagement with allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific region.
That is why Taiwan’s preparations are increasingly based on the principle that the island must be able to withstand a first strike and continue to fight, regardless of how quickly outside help arrives.
Recent exercises, budget increases, and investments in drones and mobile weapons show that Taipei no longer views danger as an abstract future scenario. At the same time, the delay in the US $14 billion arms package adds a new element of uncertainty just as China accelerates its own military modernization.