The chief economist of the Russian state development corporation VEB was fired after he warned earlier this year that Russia could not win a prolonged war of attrition against Ukraine and that it was lagging behind economically and technologically, The Moscow Times writes, citing The Bell.
We are talking about Andrei Klepach, who made these statements during a meeting at the Nikitsky Club of the Moscow Stock Exchange in May, but his comments only attracted widespread attention this weekend, after the Russian edition of The Moscow Times published excerpts from his report. It reviews Russia’s wartime economic prospects and says the country “is losing not only to China and the United States, but in some ways to Ukraine.” Western financial support is the main reason Ukraine “survives despite everything,” Klepach said, noting its severe demographic and economic problems.
“We will not win this war of attrition,” Klepach said in the report, according to the Moscow Times. “We live in the illusion that everything in Ukraine will collapse. It has not happened, and it will not happen. Meanwhile, the costs we are incurring are rising."
Ukrainian attacks on Russian infrastructure, Western sanctions and high domestic interest rates are limiting future growth and hindering technological investment, he added.
"I don't believe Russia will collapse, but I am almost certain that we are facing a social crisis," he warned. "We will not suffer an economic collapse, but we will fall even further behind, with all the ensuing consequences."
An anonymous source told "The Bell" that Klepach was fired on Sunday after VEB management received a call "from above" suggesting that the Kremlin had ordered his dismissal, The Moscow Times reported. A second source linked Klepach's dismissal directly to his claims from two months ago.
VEB has not commented on the information about his removal.
Klepach was also a deputy minister from 2008 to 2014, spending ten years at Russia's Ministry of Economic Development and working with senior officials such as Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina and Defense Minister Andrei Belousov.