Russia believes that the talks on Ukraine have reached an impasse and is therefore now preparing to intensify its attacks on the neighboring country. This is what sources close to the Kremlin told the "Bloomberg" agency.
"The fighting in its current form is not yet the peak of the escalation"
Moscow is currently exploring the possibilities of more active strikes on Kiev, including its central districts, relying on ballistic missiles without a nuclear charge. Other possible targets are infrastructure facilities in Ukrainian cities, say sources close to the Kremlin, who requested anonymity. According to their assessment, the sanctions pressure on the Russian economy and the attacks by Ukraine on Russian oil refineries and logistics centers will not force Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the war.
"Moscow increasingly views the Ukrainian strikes as attacks by NATO countries, as the Alliance members supply Kiev with weapons and intelligence," "Bloomberg" quotes its sources as saying. "The fighting in its current form is not yet the peak of the escalation," they also say.
Due to the lack of results from diplomatic efforts, Moscow sees no alternative to further escalation as a means to achieve its goals, the agency also reports, citing four of its sources. According to them, Moscow's point of view is that Russia has already made a number of compromises and therefore any further concession would only weaken its position.
Is there a danger that Russia will use tactical nuclear weapons?
Meanwhile, a number of Russian officials do not rule out that the ongoing mutual strikes by Russia and Ukraine on logistical facilities, ports and ships in the Black Sea could force Putin to resort to the last resort: the use of tactical nuclear weapons. "Recently, "hawks" in Moscow have increasingly suggested taking such a step," writes the "Bloomberg" agency.
The administration of former US President Joe Biden was categorical that in the event of the use of nuclear weapons in the war in Ukraine, the US would respond with a massive strike. "Trump is unlikely to issue the same warning to Russia," "Bloomberg" quoted Fiona Hill of the "Brookings" Institution as saying, who has served as a national security advisor to three US presidents, including Donald Trump during his first term.
"The price of breaking the nuclear taboo is very high"
According to Alexander Gabuev, director of the Berlin "Carnegie" for the study of Russia and Eurasia, "the risk of using tactical nuclear weapons remains extremely low, as their military effectiveness on the modern dispersed battlefield is limited, while the political cost of violating the nuclear taboo is very high".
"As long as Moscow has the means to escalate using conventional weapons, including by increasing missile strikes, it has no reason to cross the nuclear threshold," the expert also said.
Author: Christian Thal