Drones and explosives found in Germany in connection with a suspected attack on Leipzig Airport, a downed naval drone near a Black Sea gas platform, and a foiled plot to assassinate the head of a European defense company are among the latest cases that experts say show an escalation of Russian actions against Europe, bTV reported.
However, European Union leaders continue to characterize these actions primarily as “hybrid warfare” rather than direct conflict. According to security officials, diplomats, and defense industry representatives quoted by "Politico", this term may underestimate the seriousness of the threat and the degree of escalation in relations with Russia.
Earlier this week German investigators have found a third drone and explosives believed to be linked to a planned attack on an airport. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said the country faces "very real threats" amid increased activity by hybrid attackers.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen also warned of an "escalating campaign of threats" and "hybrid warfare" following the Black Sea incident, BGNES reported.
According to a report by "Politico", some intelligence agencies believe the series of similar incidents could be part of a process that could lead to a direct Russian attack on a NATO member state. Against this backdrop, the director of the United States Central Intelligence Agency, John Ratcliffe, visited Moscow to warn the Kremlin not to attack NATO countries.
Former NATO Deputy Assistant Secretary General Camille Grand says Europe is already in a "hybrid war that is no longer so hybrid." He says defense industry executives have increased their personal security in recent months. He cites threats against the head of Saab and a plot to assassinate the CEO of German defense concern Rheinmetall as examples. At the same time, a senior EU official told Politico that European services see no risk of an attack on European countries. According to the European Commission, the term "hybrid war" includes a combination of coercive and subversive actions, as well as conventional and unconventional methods, diplomatic, military, economic and technological, used in a coordinated manner to achieve specific goals without reaching an officially declared war.
However, critics of this terminology warn that using the term “hybrid war“ to cover assassinations, sabotage, cyberattacks and drone incursions can create a false sense of security among the public.
“We should just talk about conflict“, says Pawel Węczyński, CEO of the defense technology company “DataWalk“. He says that in December, Russia almost shut down Poland's electricity grid, there have been attempts to blow up railway lines, shipments of explosives have been sent and numerous cyberattacks have been carried out. Camille Grand describes the development of the situation as a process of gradual escalation. He says that actions that initially seem shocking are gradually becoming the norm. “They are testing the limits“, says Grand.