Russia is increasing pressure on NATO countries, and the Kremlin, according to experts, may take advantage of the period of uncertainty in the West to launch a new provocation. As CBC writes, Moscow sees confrontation with NATO as a key part of the struggle for an outcome from the war against Ukraine, Focus reports.
Experts warn: the Kremlin may not be looking for ways to de-escalate, but, on the contrary, rely on further intensification of tensions. According to Witold Rodkiewicz from the Center for East European Studies at the University of Warsaw, the Russian leadership may associate the victory in Ukraine with the political weakening of the West. Of particular concern is a possible attack that will be difficult to unambiguously associate with Russia. Former Canadian Ambassador to NATO Kerry Buck believes that Moscow has received a certain "window of opportunity" and is capable of trying to conduct an operation aimed primarily at splitting the Alliance.
One of the most alarming scenarios was previously voiced by Lithuanian intelligence. It concerns the possible use of captured Ukrainian drones for an operation under a foreign flag against one of the Baltic states. The goal of such an action may not be to inflict maximum military damage, but to provoke a political crisis within NATO.
This scenario seems especially dangerous against the background of previous cases when Ukrainian drones ended up in the airspace of Alliance countries, including due to the impact of Russian electronic warfare equipment. At the same time, disagreements continue within NATO regarding the likelihood of a direct attack by Russia. In August, US intelligence warned Poland and the Baltic states that Moscow could be ready for "provocative actions" against the Alliance even before the end of the war in Ukraine. According to experts, the main risk lies in the uncertainty about the US reaction. That is why a possible Russian operation may be aimed not so much at seizing territory as at testing NATO's readiness to act as a united front.