Since the beginning of the year, scientists have been watching the development of temperatures in the Pacific Ocean with alarm. Now the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has confirmed: as early as August, surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean, near the equator, were up to 2.6 degrees above average, and in the deeper layers - even over eight degrees. Never before have temperatures there been so high so early in the year. This means that the El Niño climate phenomenon has occurred earlier than usual and is still gaining momentum.
This is the strongest El Niño in history
"With almost 100 percent certainty, we can say that this is the strongest El Niño that has ever been measured," explains climatologist and El Niño expert Daniela Mattei from the "Max Planck" Institute for Meteorology. "The consequences of the current El Niño in the Pacific region could be truly dramatic", she added.
The name El Niño, which translates from Spanish as "the infant Jesus", describes a weather phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean that occurs on average every four years and whose effects are felt most strongly towards the end of the year, during the Christmas holidays.
In normal years without El Niño, the trade winds carry warm water from the surface off the equatorial west coast of South and Central America towards Australia and Indonesia. In return, cooler water from the deep western Pacific can flow towards the American continent. However, if these winds are too weak or even change direction, this heat exchange can no longer take place – then the El Niño period sets in.
Drought takes many victims
This leads to the fact that in the usually dry regions along the west coast of America, heavy torrential rains are observed in places, while on the usually rainy and warm east coast of Indonesia, Australia, but also Africa, droughts occur. During the El Niño years of 1877 and 1878, droughts claimed the lives of at least 20 million people in Asia and Africa alone, according to estimates.
According to Daniela Matej, today the international community is better prepared in the event of an impending famine in any region of the world. But there are many other dangers. Above all, rainfall can cause dangerous floods. Typhoons that arise as a result of the El Niño phenomenon also pose a major and almost uncontrollable threat to the inhabitants of the Pacific countries.
It is not only the Pacific region that is affected
It is particularly problematic that El Niño, with its sudden weather changes, collides with an atmosphere that is already very warm as a result of human-induced climate change. This is why the breakdown in heat exchange in the Pacific Ocean also confuses global weather systems, explains atmospheric researcher Andreas Petzold from the Jülich Research Center.
"What will happen here is changes in long-term and large-scale weather systems," says Petzold. "Where warm air is pushed into the atmosphere, clouds form and release heat into the already overheated atmosphere. This is how global circulation patterns change."
Economic damage could be enormous
Europe will probably be spared from extreme weather events such as heavy rains and flash floods caused by El Niño. However, changes in circulation patterns, for example in the polar regions, could lead to a relatively mild winter in Europe in the first half, and from January onwards - a particularly cold one. But this cannot be predicted with certainty.
However, El Niño does not only have meteorological consequences for Europe. Scientists warn that droughts caused by the phenomenon could lead to shortages of some essential food products in parts of the world. This would also disrupt supply chains to Europe. The economic damage could be enormous.
Frank Boehmer (ARD)