Russia retains significant global influence despite sanctions, war and international isolation. However, its current advantages may prove temporary. If the world order stabilizes again, it would be much more difficult for Moscow to compete with the West and China, according to an analysis by Foreign Affairs magazine, News.bg reports.
For a long time, the United States viewed Russia as a country in a state of permanent decline. However, this assessment is increasingly inconsistent with reality.
Moscow remains a nuclear superpower, with one of the most powerful armies in the world and vast reserves of natural resources. Despite massive Western sanctions, the Russian economy has not suffered the expected collapse, and attempts to isolate the country internationally have not deprived the Kremlin of its influence.
Russia has also actively used the BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) to strengthen its positions in a world that is increasingly moving away from Western domination.
The war has strengthened the Russian army
The experience gained in the war against Ukraine has become a significant advantage for Moscow. Despite serious setbacks at the beginning of the full-scale invasion, the Russian armed forces have since adapted to modern technologies and tactics.
Today, Russia has not only a powerful army, but also unique experience in conducting large-scale ground combat operations of a new generation. At the same time, its nuclear arsenal remains a key tool for deterring the West.
Moscow draws additional leverage from its natural resources – oil, gas, coal, wheat, fertilizers, uranium, and critical metals. In a world increasingly threatened by supply chain disruptions, possession of these resources is becoming a significant political asset.
The world may change
The main challenge facing the Kremlin is that the current chaotic world order may prove only temporary.
If the global system begins to consolidate again – with the United States reestablishing closer transatlantic ties, and with international trade and cooperation increasing – some of Russia’s advantages could disappear.
In that case, Moscow will have to compete with more than just military might. It will need technology, investment, a strong private sector and access to global markets.
This is where Russia could face serious challenges. Its population is declining, its dependence on raw material exports remains high, and excessive state control is hindering the growth of private technology companies.
Lagging behind in areas such as artificial intelligence, robotics, clean energy, quantum computing and biotechnology could prove particularly dangerous for the country.
Beyond the “Fortress“
The authors of the analysis believe that Russia's long-term future will depend on its ability to adapt to the new world order:
“Peaceful coexistence - and even limited cooperation - is the best way forward“.
The need to restore relations with the European Union is particularly important. Before the war, European countries were among Moscow's key economic partners and a vital source of technology. At the same time, the analysis advises Russia to comply with international law, even if this means giving up certain short-term benefits.
According to the authors, the greatest risk for the Kremlin lies in excessive adherence to the status quo. If Moscow fails to adapt to technological and geopolitical changes, its current strength may gradually turn into weakness.
“Such a position may develop into a refusal to adapt - a kind of hardening that has repeatedly pushed great powers to the periphery of history“, the analysis notes.