Ukraine is methodically depleting Russia's fleet of strategic bombers - aircraft that Moscow is no longer able to fully replace. This is stated in an article by The Telegraph, which analyzes the recent strikes on the Engels-2 airbase in the Saratov region and their potential impact on Russia's long-range strike capabilities and its nuclear arsenal.
In late August, a Ukrainian drone flew approximately 800 kilometers over Russian territory to attack a Tu-95 strategic bomber at the Engels-2 airbase. The strike tore off part of the plane's right wing. Satellite images taken shortly after the attack revealed serious damage to a second Tu-95. As the publication notes, Russia has not produced new aircraft of this type since 1992, which means that these losses are practically irreparable.
This was the second attack on the "Engels-2" in about six weeks. In July, another Tu-95 suffered damage in which the tail section completely separated from the fuselage. Analysts believe that it is unlikely that either aircraft will return to service. Russia had previously lost other aircraft of this type during the Ukrainian operation "Cobweb".
Along with the newer Tu-160, the Tu-95 is one of two Russian aircraft capable of launching long-range Kh-101 cruise missiles at Ukrainian cities. That is why, as the publication explains, these aircraft are of critical importance despite their age and technical obsolescence.
According to The Telegraph, for the strike in August, the Ukrainian side used a MICH-2000 drone with a range of approximately 2,000 kilometers. This range was more than enough for a direct flight to "Engels-2". The drone managed to pave a route that bypassed known areas of concentration of Russian air defense, taking advantage of the peculiarities of the terrain to minimize the risk of detection. However, the author of the article notes that the success of the attack cannot be attributed solely to the characteristics of the airbase itself. Russia's air defense system is being forced to simultaneously defend an increasing number of sites across the country, from oil refineries to storage facilities.
According to estimates by the British think tank RUSI, Russia probably has only 20 to 30 Tu-95s left in service, and perhaps even fewer. An additional challenge is the difficulty of maintaining aircraft whose design dates back to the 1950s.
At the same time, the significance of each loss increases, since these aircraft serve as carriers of the Kh-101 missile. This weapon has a range of over 3,000 km and a warhead weighing approximately 400 kg. According to RUSI researcher Robert Tolast, the Tu-95 plays an extremely important role in Russian strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure.
"Therefore, the fewer Tu-95 aircraft Russia has left, the fewer of these long-range missiles with destructive warheads it can launch," the expert explains.
The Telegraph compares Ukraine's current tactics to Operation Cobweb in 2025, although it describes the strikes on Engels-2 airbase as a quieter and slower campaign. The logic behind it is the gradual depletion of an aircraft fleet that Moscow is practically unable to replenish.
The consequences may go beyond the war in Ukraine. Russia also uses the Tu-95 for flights demonstrating military power near NATO airspace. The dwindling number of aircraft, the publication notes, increasingly limits Moscow’s ability to simultaneously conduct large-scale long-range strikes and maintain these machines as part of its nuclear deterrent. Ultimately, Russia faces a growing challenge: how to balance using these bombers against Ukraine today and storing them for a possible future clash with NATO.